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tarifFS AND TIGHT WALLETS

A colleague of mine told me recently that anytime you give a presentation around technology, there is an obligation, almost a duty, to include “AI”. Now, it feels like anytime you talk or write about things in the freight market, you have to include the word “tariffs”. The old saying, if you don’t laugh, you’ll cry seems very appropriate. 

In 2024, 68 percent of personal consumer expenditures comprised our nation’s gross domestic product (GDP). This is concerning when you look at the trend over the last three months regarding consumer revolving credit.  

As you can see below in Figure 1.1, year-over-year (YoY) there has been a decline. When customers feel skittish about taking on a new car loan or signing on the dotted line for a thirty-year mortgage, this has a trickle-down effect, not just on the immediate sectors, like the auto industry and housing, but those secondary and tertiary markets. If the pace of new homes being bought slows, then production of things that go into the home, like furniture, carpet, or fixtures, is also impacted negatively.  

Some have pointed to the credit card revolving debt as a sign of the economy’s strength. That may have been a valid argument in January, when we saw a six percent YoY gain. But the recent report shows an annualized bump of only 0.1 percent, indicating that consumers are curtailing spending and relying on cash at hand to fund purchases versus credit cards.  

Don’t be surprised if long-term debt, like auto loans, starts to show an uptick in delinquency.

Tiny Shifts, but Big Waves

As the threat of the “T” word continues, the freight market continues to see the pull forward of goods entering the U.S. as shippers look to get ahead of an increase in production costs.  

While a slight increase in port areas like Los Angeles may seem like no big deal (Figure 2.1), keep in mind over half of the import volume funnels through the LA/LB ports. Even going from a 2.5 percent rejection rate to now in the five percent range (yellow line) may not seem significant. However, when you apply that change to 413k shipments in February alone, it becomes a significant impact.  

A port like Savannah (blue line) shows the impact of a fragile capacity balance, and even a slight uptick can be needle moving for rejection of freight tenders. While not to the size of the LA/LB ports, handling 265k import containers in March, a surge in volume of 30k containers compared to February 2025, an imbalance in capacity can quickly escalate rejection rates close to 15 percent as they stand currently.

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Spring Thaw or Economic Chill? Key Indicators to Watch in 2025  

Normally we look at over-the-road or port volumes, what carrier rejections look like, and how that is impacting freight rates. This month, we’re going to shift a bit and look at things from more of an economic standpoint. The first chart, Figure 1.1, shows the federal funds rate and consumer debt. Consumer spending accounts for a large portion of GDP with dollars they spend on things as well as services.  

The latter part of 2024 saw multiple cuts to interest rates. However, the expectation heading into 2025 was that any relief on rates would not be seen until the second half of the year as typically those who make the decisions take a bit of a ‘wait-and-see’ approach as there were several new players on the committee in their first meeting.  

One area that members of the committee look toward is the strength of the labor market. While the jobs report showed numbers for the first two months of the year slightly below the forecast, the unemployment rate continued to hover in the 4% range (Figure 2.1). Another encouraging sign is the slight increase in jobs across the manufacturing and construction sectors. Coupled with the ISM breaching the 50 mark, which is typically the point of determining positive versus negative sentiment in these industries, there is optimism as the Spring thaw begins (Figure 2.2).

I would be remiss if I did not mention recently enacted and pending tariffs. I think anyone that gives an update on the economy is now required to mention the “T” word. Things like steel, aluminum, and lumber that have been at the center of these talks are commodities that support manufacturing, and a decline in volume or an increase in the cost of these goods could hamper the manufacturing sector.

Another area in the news relates to home purchasing. Fannie Mae publishes the Home Purchase Sentiment Index, (Figure 3.1) which has shown a slight uptick in the last several months. Consumers who felt now was a good time to sell a home rose to 65 percent, up from 60 percent in January.

While the same cannot be said for those in the market to buy; only 19 percent of consumers felt it was a good time to buy., a modest increase from the end of 2024. Much of that optimism is based on anticipated relief with mortgage rates, something consumers believe the second half of the year will offer. Will we see rates of three percent that existed back in ’21 & ’22? Most likely, no, but rates in the five or six percent range can be a swing of several hundreds of dollars on a family’s monthly mortgage payment. 

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Tariffs, Trends, & Trade Routes 

With the new administration in place, there has certainly been no shortage of headlines. Many have asked what the impact is, or potentially will be, on the freight market. I think many are leery of making changes to projections or providing advice on how to pivot because what happens today can turn on a dime tomorrow when it comes to U.S. policy.   

The one thing that appears certain is that many retailers pulled their inventory ahead in anticipation of tariffs being enacted. The last four months have seen a volume that outpaced the prior year. Figure 1.1 shows the container volume for Los Angeles (blue line) versus the port of New York/New Jersey. Particularly, the West Coast has seen an influx driven not just by the pull forward of volume, but the uncertainty with labor relations at the East Coast ports shifted volume west during the latter part of 2024 and early ’25. 

Unlike what was experienced several years ago, that increase in import volume has not translated to over-the-road moves. Figure 2.1 shows the last six months of volume handled by trucks out of the Los Angeles area versus the volume that has found its way to the rails. Unlike ’21 and ’22 when rails were a bit of the bottleneck for freight movement, they are much better positioned this time to handle the increase in volume. You can clearly see the gap in volume for rail (white line) versus truck (blue line), especially since early October.     

Speaking of imports, there appears to be a normalizing of the cost to procure containers for movement of goods into the U.S. Looking at Figure 3.1, the cost of a freight container from China to both the left and right side of the United States has retreated from its high during the summer months and shows a leveling out. Much of this is due to the decline seen in nefarious activity in and around the Red Sea. As calm has returned, ships are now able to utilize this corridor for transit, it has shaved transit times which in turn has opened up more ship capacity globally.  

Price Hikes Ahead?

Finally, while tariffs have been the talk recently, certainly the who, what and when has been in a state of ebb and flow, one item that is not getting as much press is the scrapping of the de minimis exception. This has long been a shipping loophole for retailers that thrive on low-cost goods (think Temu or Shein). Unlike many retailers who paid millions, hundreds of millions, in duties and taxes, the companies of Shein and Temu paid a whopping $0 for all of 2024. This move now requires basically all inbound shipments to the U.S. to be subject to duties, taxes and processing fees, which has the potential to shift the landscape for companies that were able to thrive in this market.  

As example, a good costing $50 once it got to the end customer was still only $50. With de minimis not in play, a $50 good could avoid fees that would almost double when you factor in the additional costs. What remains to be seen is how these increased costs are handled, but the most likely scenario is the end consumer absorbing the bulk of those costs. Typically, producing these low-cost goods in China comes with stiff competition and razor-thin margins, leaving manufacturers and shippers unable to absorb the increase.

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Trinity Logistics, a leading third-party logistics (3PL) provider, is thrilled to share the company has received a silver medal sustainability rating by EcoVadis, a trusted global provider of business sustainability assessments. This recognition marks a major milestone for Trinity, reflecting progress from the bronze medal rating received in 2023, and places the company in the top 15 percent of all organizations assessed in the past year.

Over 1,000 enterprises rely on EcoVadis to assess and manage sustainability practices within their supply chain. EcoVadis evaluates sustainability practices across its four key areas of Environment, Labor and Human Rights, Ethics, and Sustainability Procurement. Trinity made impressive strides in each category, achieving an overall score improvement from 55 to an outstanding 74, placing them in the 94^th percentile of all companies.

Key Category Improvements

• Environment: +10 points
• Labor and Human Rights: +20 points
• Ethics: +20 points
• Sustainable Procurement: +30 points

This growth was driven by initiatives such as setting a five-year goal commitment to reduce emissions with the company’s motor carrier relationships and sourcing sustainable materials for company promotional items.

“Trinity Logistics is pleased to report an improvement from a bronze to a silver medal rating following the most recent EcoVadis assessment,” said Kristin Deno, Operational Risk Analyst at Trinity. “The EcoVadis scorecard shows where we sit currently and highlights areas where we can expand our efforts on the path to sustainability. This annual assessment has been very beneficial to keeping track of our sustainability initiatives as a whole while also helping us find opportunities for improvement, as shown from our 2023 to 2024 rating change.”

As part of the recognition, EcoVadis will plant a tree in Trinity’s name through their partnership with One Tree Planted, further contributing to global reforestation efforts.

Sustainability has been a long cornerstone of Trinity’s operations. Since 2009, the company has been a proud partner in the American Chemistry Council’s Responsible Care® program, which involves staying committed to improving company performance through community awareness, security, distribution, and pollution prevention. Additionally, the company is an active participant in the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) SmartWay Program, focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution caused by freight transportation.

“We are honored to receive the silver rating from EcoVadis, recognizing our commitment to sustainable business practices,” said Sarah Ruffcorn, President at Trinity Logistics. “We recognize the vital role we play in the supply chain and our Team works to continuously improve in the key sustainability categories each year.”

About Trinity Logistics

Trinity Logistics is a Burris Logistics Company, offering People-Centric Freight Solutions®. Our mission is to deliver creative logistics solutions through a mix of human ingenuity and innovative technology, enriching the lives of those we serve. 

For the past 45 years, we’ve been arranging freight for businesses of all sizes in truckload, less-than-truckload (LTL), warehousing, intermodal, drayage, expedited, international, and technology solutions.

We are currently recognized as a Top Freight Brokerage by Transport Topics, a Green Supply Chain Partner by Inbound Logistics, and a Top Company for Women to Work for in Transportation by Women in Trucking.

Trinity Logistics, a national third-party logistics provider (3PL), is proud to announce its 2024 Platinum Agents. This distinguished group of Independent Freight Agents is recognized for their outstanding brokerage achievements in 2024. Thirty-five Agent offices earned Platinum status, with 11 of those achieving the newly-recognized, elite Platinum Plus level. These remarkable recipients represent 16 states across the U.S. and Mexico, highlighting the diverse and far-reaching impact of Trinity’s Agent network. 

The Platinum recognition celebrates Agent offices that achieve at least $500,000 in annual brokerage, while Platinum Plus status is awarded to those exceeding $1.5 million. Since the program’s inception in 2018, the Platinum awards have honored top-performing Agents for their dedication to delivering exceptional logistics solutions. 

“To achieve Platinum status in any year is a testament to the successful businesses our Agents have built,” said Greg Massey, Senior Vice President of Agent Development. “Results like these don’t just happen – they require dedication, determination, and a true passion for the work. Trinity is incredibly proud of their achievements, many of which are repeat recognitions, and we look forward to celebrating with them in June.” 

To recognize their accomplishments, Trinity is thrilled to reward its Platinum Agents with an all-expenses-paid getaway to Barbados. This exclusive trip offers the honorees and their guests a well-deserved opportunity to recharge in a relaxing environment, network with peers, and celebrate their shared success. 

Trinity’s Agent Program has been a cornerstone of the company’s business model for 35 years, supporting Independent Freight Agents with tools, resources, and a collaborative network. The Platinum awards, now in their sixth year, symbolize the program’s commitment to fostering success and celebrating excellence. 

About Trinity Logistics

Trinity Logistics is a Burris Logistics Company, offering People-Centric Freight Solutions®. Our mission is to deliver creative logistics solutions through a mix of human ingenuity and innovative technology, enriching the lives of those we serve. 

For the past 45 years, we’ve been arranging freight for businesses of all sizes in truckload, less-than-truckload (LTL), warehousing, intermodal, drayage, expedited, international, and technology solutions.

We are currently recognized as a Top Freight Brokerage by Transport Topics, a Green Supply Chain Partner by Inbound Logistics, and holds a silver sustainability rating by EcoVadis.

Trinity Logistics, a leading, nationwide third-party logistics provider (3PL), is thrilled to announce the appointment of Gabrielle Macy as its Vice President of Administrative Services. 

Macy comes to Trinity Logistics with a well-rounded history of roles that made her an optimal choice for the position. She brings nearly 20 years of extensive experience in administrative leadership and organizational development. Her expertise in transforming administrative functions and driving organizational growth aligns perfectly with Trinity’s commitment to excellence and continuous improvement.

“Gabrielle’s broad and extensive background in various positions including her previous roles as Executive Vice President of Operations and Chief Operating Officer certainly made her stand out for the position,” said Doug Potvin, Chief Financial Officer at Trinity Logistics. “She also has significant knowledge of technology and how it should be implemented to improve efficiency and effectiveness. But what truly set Gabrielle apart from other candidates is her incredible personality and dedication to nurturing others, making her an ideal fit for Trinity’s People-Centric culture.”

In her new role, Gabrielle will oversee all aspects of Administrative Services, including Credit, Collections, Risk, Invoicing, Carrier Compliance, and Claims. Her commitment to fostering a positive and productive work environment will make her a notable addition to Trinity’s leadership.  

“The logistics industry is ripe with opportunity to drive meaningful impact, particularly in today’s fast-paced and interconnected global economy,” said Macy. “I am honored to join Trinity, a company that not only delivers exceptional logistics solutions but does so by prioritizing relationships, empowering its people, and embracing innovation.”

Macy is eager to foster growth within Trinity by enabling teams to reach their fullest potential. By cultivating a culture of trust, engagement, and continuous improvement, she aims to inspire and support every Team Member to deliver their best work and achieve shared success.

“This is more than a career step for me; it’s an opportunity to be a part of something bigger – a company that aligns its actions with its values and sets a standard of excellence in the industry,” Macy added. “I look forward to contributing Trinity’s legacy and shaping its future as we deliver value to our partners, customers, and communities.”

Trinity looks forward to the insight and experience Macy will bring to its back-end business operations and dedication to offering exceptional service and experiences to our business partners.

About Trinity Logistics

Trinity Logistics is a Burris Logistics Company, offering People-Centric Freight Solutions®. Our mission is to deliver creative logistics solutions through a mix of human ingenuity and innovative technology, enriching the lives of those we serve. 

For the past 45 years, we’ve been arranging freight for businesses of all sizes in truckload, less-than-truckload (LTL), warehousing, intermodal, drayage, expedited, international, and technology solutions.

We are currently recognized as a Top Freight Brokerage by Transport Topics, a Green Supply Chain Partner by Inbound Logistics, and holds a silver sustainability rating by EcoVadis.

Stay up to date on the latest information on conditions impacting the freight market, curated by Trinity Logistics through our Freightwaves Sonar subscription.

Rising Tide of Rejection

Continuing our theme of tender rejection rates being a leading indicator of freight rates, the momentum gained over the last few months continues.  

While the tender rejection rate (Figure 1.1) for the overall U.S. (blue line) briefly touched the 10 percent marker, it has retreated. However, it still appears to be slowly climbing, currently sitting just below eight percent. Being 300 basis points above the mark a year ago is a big deal and shows the relationship that exists between carriers saying “no thank you” to a shipment offered to them and the continuing retreat in carrier capacity.  

Further, the rejection rate on refrigerated shipments (yellow line) has continued its run of outpacing the overall U.S. rejection rate for the past eight months. Colder than normal temperatures across much of the country has contributed to the need for reefer unit trailers to keep product from freezing. Shippers, especially those that play in refrigerated commodities, need to ensure they are flush with carrier and broker capacity, and should anticipate rate increase requests from their providers.

Speaking of capacity, we continue to see the slow trickle of carriers leaving the market. Looking at the past year, the trend for 2025 is we will see capacity decline at a three-to-five percent pace.  Figure 2.1 shows the net change in carrier authorities, for the most part staying in the negative territory.  

Looking further into the loss of capacity, the teal line shows the change in authority for micro fleets (one-to-five trucks). This is typically the owner operator community. Increases in costs to operate, as well as equipment where these carriers may be upside down on payments, has caused several to retreat from operating in the industry.

Calm Waters Ahead

Finally, a potential strike at East Coast and Gulf ports was averted for a second time. This is certainly good news as shippers continue to pull forward orders in anticipation of tariffs being imposed on import volume.  

Just a few years ago, East Coast ports were seeing almost half of the U.S. import volume flow through their ports. Much of this shift was due to labor and operations issues on the West Coast. We are now seeing that reverse course. 

East Coast ports are handling 41 percent of inbound ocean freight, while West Coast ports are up over the same two-year period, from 37 percent to 47 percent. With ILWU voting in favor of a contract that extends through mid-2028, and East and Gulf port workers agreeing on a six-year deal, a sense of calm should come to shippers and manufacturers that depend on our ports to receive their freight.

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CANARY IN THE CAVE

Data is everywhere, both on a macro and micro level. How this data is interpreted and reported, and the contradictions it can create, has the potential to leave one wondering just what to believe.  

For years now, I have been, pretty much daily, watching like a hawk the ebb and flow of tender rejections (Figure 1.1). While this is focused on the contact freight market, what happens on the contract side absolutely has an impact on the spot market side. The last year plus has been pretty vanilla, with rejection rates almost negligible.  

This pales in comparison to just a few years ago when carriers said “no” to shipments 30-plus percent of the time. While the current six percent rejection rate won’t set off many alarms, it is noteworthy in its trend. Heck, just six months ago, the rejection rate was hovering below three percent. Yes, there is seasonality that plays into the rejection rate, but seasonality also existed in 2023, and the rejection rate lagged during the fourth quarter of the year. While there will be some dips along the way over the next six months, I expect the upward trend to continue.

LOOMING STRIKES & DISRUPTION

Many in the industry breathed a sigh of relief when the short-lived port strikes on the East and Gulf Coasts were settled. However, while there was agreement on several issues, the automation at the ports loop remained open.  

We are fast approaching the 90-day period for resolve in January, and the threat of another shutdown looms. Combined, the East and Gulf Coast ports provide service for incoming and outgoing ocean containers for more than half of the volume in the U.S.  

So, what should you be prepared for if a second strike were to happen?

👉 Like it or not, we are dependent on unfinished and finished goods from overseas. Not being able to receive those goods will cause shortages on things like groceries, electronics, and clothing to name a few.

👉 The U.S. economy’s dependence on consistent flow of goods in and out of our country is to the tune of about four billion dollars per day. Even a week-long strike has the potential to severely delay the flow of goods around the ports for a month-plus.

👉 While most U.S. businesses would feel the effects, small businesses would be the most impacted as their already thin profit margins would be challenged by increased costs for goods along with a tight labor market and inflation.

👉 It’s not just consumer-ready goods. The ports play a role in the preparedness for emergency situations and defense posture.

We are already seeing the surge in import volume, up about eight percent versus a year ago as shippers look to get ahead of potential tariffs and now a labor shortage. Couple this with a downward trend in over-the-road capacity (Figure 2.1), and you have a recipe to further accelerate trucking rates. 

U.S. shippers need to be reviewing their carrier and broker partners for compliance in the coming months. While many have not had the need recently, they should consider adding extra companies to their routing guides.

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What to Expect in the Short-Term

Well, so much for a recession. The U.S. is anticipating year-over-year growth of 2.8 percent in 2024 with regards to gross domestic product (GDP). That percentage of growth appears to be trending less in calendar 2025, with moderate growth forecast through the end of 2029 (Figure 1.1).  

Generally, for every one percent of GDP growth, that typically translates into 1.5 percent growth in over-the-road truckload volume. Based on those projections, we expect freight volumes to climb by four to five percent in the coming year.

Conditions are also turning more favorable for a pendulum swing to the side of the carriers. Two reasons for the bullish outlook – dwindling capacity and tariffs (be it threat or real), simple supply and demand.  

INCHING CLOSER TO BALANCE

On the capacity side, the spread between contract and spot rates, which was near $0.80 per mile in the middle of 2022, has now fallen below $0.50 per mile. Keep in mind contract is almost always above spot sans latter 2020 and early 2021. 

The gap has closed primarily due to contract rates receding, from the $2.30 range in early ’24 to now being $0.15 less, as illustrated by. Figure 2.. Figure 2.2 shows the net change in for-hire carriers versus the tender rejection rate. Since mid-2022, carriers have started to shun the market as higher costs to operate & lower rates made sustainability a challenge.  

Where does shrinking capacity first show up? In the tender rejection rates. Carriers will say no to a guaranteed rate load either because they have no equipment in the area or there is a more favorable paying load available.  

Rejection rates cresting the five percent mark may not sound significant, but keep in mind rejection rates were in the two to three percent range as we started this calendar year. Eight to 10 percent is a more balanced market, and we are close to that. Usually, rejection rates in double digits signify more pricing leverage is held by the carrier community.

The other driving factor is around demand. While there are some sectors showing slight gains, the November election could be the spark that drives a glut of freight movement.  

With Republicans poised to control the White House and Congress, impending tariffs will drive a flurry of activity as shippers look to move goods prior to an imposed increase in cost, This is likely a short-term surge as “too much inventory” is a real thing, and once tariffs are imposed, consumers ultimately will feel the brunt of increased costs and could hamper purchasing. However, the next pivot point will be around movement of production to domestic U.S. or near-shore locations.  

After a blah few years, things are about to get interesting.

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Feels like 2022

For the majority of this year, volumes have seen their traditional seasonal patterns and have been trending above 2023 levels. Many have commented that market balance will be driven more by carrier attrition versus an event that spurs freight volumes.  

2022 was a pretty good year from an industry standpoint. Volumes were still elevated (certainly not like we saw in 2021) and capacity was inline. While it may be a blip on the radar, we have now seen the Outbound Tender Volume Index eclipse 2022 levels for the first time in two years as seen in Figure 1.1.

I think it is still too early to pin the volume uptick on the interest rate reduction or the recent hurricanes that severely impacted states in the southeast, but these events, and any potential storms that might still pop up (hurricane season isn’t quite over yet), could impact freight volumes in the coming months. Combined with consumers continuing to spend, volumes could remain consistent through the end of the year versus following their traditional end of year downward movement.

FINE….FOR NOW

While there was a sigh of relief from many with the ILA and USMX reaching a deal on wage increases for dock workers, this does not mean that everything is resolved, and potential port disruptions could occur at the 20-something docks along the East and Gulf coast.  

Union-member wages were the major bargaining chip that was agreed upon last week, with dock workers receiving an immediate pay increase, with yearly pay increases to follow. When all increases have taken effect, dock workers will see a 62 percent increase in pay. One issue that was not finalized was the use of automation at select ports, which the labor union has opposition to full and semi-automation. The two sides will continue their negotiation discussions, with a timetable of three months from now to finalize a deal.  

If these points can’t be resolved, it may be rinse and repeat with the threat of another strike as we get into the start of 2025.  

Speaking of the recent shut down of port activity, it will take a week or so to work through the container backlog. This, along with the disruption in shipping patterns caused by the recent hurricanes, has been impacting tender rejection rates as seen in Figure 2.1.

Rejection rates crested the five percent mark recently. As port activity comes back online, expect the volume for short haul shipments (<250 miles) to remain elevated as also seen in Figure 2.1.

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