The freight market is becoming increasingly uneven as we head toward the final quarter of 2026. 

Last month, we saw a market that had cooled from its early-summer highs but remained firmer than the softer conditions seen throughout much of the previous 2 years. September’s data adds another layer to that picture. 

National freight volumes remain relatively stable, and tender rejections have continued to move lower from their summer peak. But that easing is not happening evenly. Flatbed capacity varies widely between individual markets, while rising diesel prices are creating a growing gap between all-in transportation rates and underlying linehaul pricing. 

Broader logistics data tells a similar story. The Logistics Managers’ Index continued to expand in August, but at a slower pace, while transportation prices remained high. 

The September data shows a market that has become more stable nationally, but more uneven underneath the averages. Capacity, cost, and freight activity increasingly depend on where freight is moving and how it is moving. 

60 Second Freight Market Pulse 

Here are the key numbers shaping the freight market this month: 

• Tender rejections are at 12.54%. This is below the summer peak near 18%, but remains above the levels seen throughout much of 2024 and 2025.  

• Tender volumes are approximately 10,191, slightly below the 12-month average of 10,307.  

• All-in truckload spot pricing is approximately $3.44 per mile, while linehaul-only pricing is approximately $2.44 per mile.  

• National flatbed tender rejections are 17.27%, but individual Midwest markets range from approximately 1.84% to 29.52%.  

• The Logistics Managers’ Index registered 66.6 in August, down from 68.9 in July and 71.1 in June.  

• National diesel reached $6.285 per gallon as of September 14, continuing the sharp increase seen since July.  

Freight Demand Remains Relatively Stable 

National freight demand has changed little over the past month. 

The Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) currently sits at approximately 10,191, compared with its 12-month average of 10,307. Outside of normal holiday swings, volumes have remained within a fairly consistent range throughout 2026.  

Capacity tells a somewhat different story. 

The Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI), which measures the percentage of contracted loads rejected by carriers, currently sits at 12.54%. This is well below the summer peak near 18%, but remains above the levels seen throughout much of 2024 and 2025. 

Looking at these two indicators together provides a clearer picture. Freight volumes are not showing a major increase, yet carriers continue to reject more contracted freight than they did during much of the previous two years. 

This suggests available capacity continues to play an important role in current market conditions, even without a major increase in freight demand. 

Flatbed Markets Tell Very Different Stories 

Flatbed provides one of the clearest examples this month of why national averages do not always reflect individual markets. 

National flatbed tender rejections currently sit at 17.27%, down significantly from the spring and below the 12-month average of 24.80%.  

But regional conditions vary widely. 

Milwaukee flatbed rejections are approximately 1.84%, while Green Bay is approximately 7.82%. In Indiana, Fort Wayne is approximately 19.56%, while Indianapolis is considerably higher at 29.52%. 

Tender volume provides additional context. Both Green Bay and Fort Wayne experienced stronger flatbed activity during the spring before volumes moved lower through the summer. 

The combination shows that flatbed conditions are not moving together across the Midwest. Wisconsin markets currently show lower rejection rates, while parts of Indiana continue to show higher rejection rates even with lower freight volumes. 

The data does not tell us what is causing the difference, but it does tell us that freight volume alone does not explain it. 

For flatbed freight, national averages are a useful benchmark. Market-level capacity provides the more complete picture. 

All-In Rates Stay High as Linehaul Pricing Moves Lower 

Transportation pricing requires a closer look this month because the headline rate and underlying linehaul rate are moving differently. 

The SONAR National Truckload Index Daily, which includes fuel surcharge, currently sits at approximately $3.44 per mile, compared with its 12-month average of $2.97. It has pulled back from the early-July high near $4.00 but remains elevated.  

Linehaul-only pricing tells a different story. 

The National Truckload Index Linehaul is currently approximately $2.44 per mile. After climbing above $3.00 around July, the index moved lower through August and September. 

At the same time, diesel prices have moved sharply higher. 

National on-highway diesel reached $6.285 per gallon as of September 14, up $0.318 from the previous week. Regional differences remain significant, with the West Coast continuing to report the highest diesel prices in the country.  

Put together, these indicators show why an all-in rate cannot be viewed as a measure of freight-market strength by itself. Linehaul pricing has moved lower from its summer peak while fuel has moved sharply higher. 

For shippers reviewing transportation costs, separating linehaul from fuel provides a clearer view of what is actually changing in the market. 

Import Activity Varies by Gateway 

Import activity is also showing significant differences by gateway. 

Long Beach inbound ocean volume is up approximately 81.7% year over year, while Los Angeles is down approximately 14.4%. New York/New Jersey is up approximately 8.7%, and Houston is up approximately 8.1%.  

Southern California provides a clear example of why gateway-level data matters. Long Beach and Los Angeles are neighboring ports, yet their year-over-year volume trends are moving in very different directions. 

Domestic and international intermodal container volumes are also near the upper end of their one-year ranges.  

Together, the data shows that import and inland freight activity should be evaluated by gateway and mode rather than through national totals alone. 

Logistics Growth Slows While Transportation Prices Remain High 

The broader logistics market continued to expand in August, but growth slowed for the second consecutive month. 

The Logistics Managers’ Index registered 66.6 in August, down from 68.9 in July and 71.1 in June. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, meaning logistics activity continues to grow, but at a slower pace. 

The transportation components provide additional context. 

Transportation Capacity registered 40.0, remaining in contraction. Transportation Utilization increased to 70.6, while Transportation Prices increased to 90.0. 

The combination is important. The overall logistics market is growing at a slower pace, but transportation costs remain high. 

Inventory is also worth watching heading into Q4. Inventory Levels registered 52.8, while Inventory Costs increased to 78.6. The August LMI also showed stronger inventory growth among downstream companies than upstream companies. 

These indicators do not guarantee stronger freight demand ahead, but they provide useful context as companies move toward the final months of the year. 

What This Means for Freight Planning 

September’s freight data points to a market that requires more than one national benchmark. 

Freight demand remains relatively steady, but available capacity varies by market. All-in transportation rates remain elevated, while underlying linehaul pricing has moved lower from its summer peak. Import activity also differs significantly by gateway. 

The freight market cannot currently be described as simply tight or loose. Where freight moves, the equipment it requires, and what is included in the transportation cost all matter. 

What We’re Watching Next Month 

• Carrier Capacity: Whether national tender rejections continue moving lower or begin to stabilize.  

• Freight Demand: Whether Q4 shipping activity creates a meaningful change in tender volumes.  

• Regional Flatbed: Whether the wide differences between Wisconsin, Indiana, and the national market continue.  

• Transportation Pricing: How linehaul-only and all-in rates move relative to one another.  

• Fuel: Whether diesel continues to rise, stabilizes, or begins to move lower.  

• Ports and Intermodal: Whether the current differences in gateway and intermodal volumes continue as freight moves inland.  

• Broader Logistics Activity: Whether LMI growth continues to slow and how its transportation components develop.  

Don’t Let Market Shifts catch you off guard

Freight conditions can shift quickly and have a major impact on your transportation strategy. Subscribe to receive our monthly Freight Market Update in your inbox and also have the option to receive our Weekly News update for a quick Friday morning snapshot of what’s shaping the market.

Looking for a more reliable transportation strategy? Request a free quote for your next shipment and see how Trinity helps shippers stay flexible in changing market conditions.

Market data sourced from FreightWaves SONAR, the Logistics Managers’ Index, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Market conditions and index values reflect the latest available data at the time of publication and are subject to change. 

The freight market continues to evolve as we move through the second half of 2026. 

After significant movement during the first half of the year, several transportation indicators have started to moderate. Tender rejection rates have come down from early-summer highs, freight volumes have softened, and spot pricing has pulled back from its July peak. 

But moderation does not mean a return to the softer freight market of recent years. 

Tender rejections remain elevated compared with much of 2024 and 2025. Contract rates are near their one-year highs, diesel prices remain significantly higher year over year, and the broader logistics market continues to expand. 

The August 2026 freight market story is becoming clearer: the market has cooled from its summer highs but remains firmer than it was a year ago. 

60 Second Freight Market Pulse 

If you only have a minute, here’s this month’s freight snapshot: 

• Tender rejections are at 13.27%, down from early-summer highs near 17% to 18%, but still well above much of the past two years. 

• Tender volumes have moderated, with OTVI at approximately 10,096 after reaching higher levels earlier this summer. 

• Truckload spot pricing has pulled back to $3.35, while van contract rates remain near their one-year high at approximately $2.72 per mile. 

• The Logistics Managers’ Index registered 68.9 in July, down from 71.1 in June but still signaling expansion. 

• U.S. on-highway diesel averaged $5.257 per gallon as of August 10, $1.503 higher than the same period last year. 

Capacity Pressure Eases, but Remains Elevated

Carrier tender rejections have been one of the clearest signs of the freight market’s shift over the past year. 

The national Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI) currently sits at 13.27%, down from the 17% to 18% levels reached earlier this summer (Figure 1.1). 

OTRI measures the percentage of contracted loads that carriers reject. Higher rejection rates can signal tighter available capacity and greater choice in which loads they accept.

The three-year view adds important context. While rejection rates have moved lower in recent weeks, they remain well above the levels seen throughout most of 2024 and 2025. 

Freight Demand Has Moderated 

Freight demand is showing a different pattern. 

The Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) currently sits at approximately 10,096, following higher levels throughout the spring and early summer (Figure 2.1). 

After moving above 12,000 in June, tender volumes gradually declined through July and into August. 

Looking at demand and capacity together provides a more complete picture. Lower tender volumes and declining rejection rates suggest some of the immediate market pressure has eased. 

However, rejection rates remain well above where they were a year ago, even as demand has moderated.

Transportation Pricing Shows Two Different Timelines 

Spot and contract pricing are telling different parts of the same market story. 

The SONAR National Truckload Index Daily Report (NTID) climbed from the low-$2.00 range per mile last fall to nearly $4.00 at its early-July peak. It has since moderated to approximately $3.35 (Figure 3.1). 

Van contract rates have moved differently. They have steadily increased throughout 2026 and currently sit near their one-year high at approximately $2.72 per mile (Figure 4.1). 

Spot pricing tends to respond more quickly to changes in freight demand and available capacity. Contract pricing generally moves more slowly. 

Looking at both shows two different timelines within the same pricing environment.

The Broader Logistics Market Remains in Expansion 

The Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) provides a broader look at transportation, inventory, and warehousing activity. 

The overall LMI registered 68.9 in July, down from 71.1 in June (Figure 5.1). A reading above 50 indicates expansion. 

July’s decline represents slower growth, not contraction. For context, the index stood at 54.2 in December 2025 before rising throughout the first half of 2026. 

Diesel Adds Another Layer to the Market 

Fuel remains a significant part of the transportation cost environment, although the latest data shows some relief from recent highs. 

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the national average price for on-highway diesel was $5.257 per gallon as of August 10, down $0.091 from the previous week. Despite the weekly decline, diesel remains $1.503 per gallon higher than the same period last year. (Figure 6.1). 

The latest decline was broad-based, with diesel prices falling week over week across every region. Regional averages now range from $5.034 per gallon in the Lower Atlantic to $6.033 on the West Coast, while California remains the highest at $6.618 per gallon.

The 13-week trend provides additional context. Diesel prices fell through the spring before rising sharply during the summer. While prices have started to ease again, they remain elevated compared with levels seen earlier this year. (Figure 7.1).

The broader picture is mixed: some immediate fuel pressure has eased, but diesel remains a much larger transportation cost factor than it was a year ago.  

What This Means for Freight Planning 

The current market shows why it is important to look at several freight indicators together rather than rely on a single national trend. 

The indicators are not moving in the same direction or at the same pace. That can create very different conditions depending on lane, region, equipment type, mode, and freight characteristics.

National trends provide an important benchmark, but they may not fully reflect what is happening within an individual freight network.

Where the Market Goes from Here

The freight market rarely moves in a straight line, and this summer has been a good example. After a period of rapid change, recent data points to a more measured pace as we move into the second half of the year.

What stands out is how differently the pieces of the market are moving. Demand, capacity, pricing, and fuel are not following the same path or changing at the same speed. Together, those differences create a freight market that has no single national indicator can fully explain.

As we move toward the fall shipping season, the focus shifts from how quickly conditions changed earlier this year to where they settle next. The upcoming months should provide a clearer view of how seasonal demand, available capacity, pricing, and broader supply chain activity shape the next stage of the freight cycle.

What We’re Watching Next Month  

• Carrier Capacity: Tender rejection trends as the market moves further away from the early-summer peak.

• Freight Demand: Signs of stabilization in tender volumes following the moderation seen throughout July and early August. 

• Transportation Pricing: The relationship between spot rates, which have pulled back from recent highs, and contract rates that remain near the top of their one-year range. 

• Fuel: The direction of diesel prices following the recent pullback, with the national average remaining above $5 per gallon. 

• Broader Logistics Activity: The pace of expansion across the LMI following July’s moderation from the June high. 

• Regional and Modal Conditions: Where national trends differ from what is happening within individual regions, equipment types, and transportation modes. 

Don’t Let Market Shifts catch you off guard

Freight conditions can shift quickly and have a major impact on your transportation strategy. Subscribe to receive our monthly Freight Market Update in your inbox and also have the option to receive our Weekly News update for a quick Friday morning snapshot of what’s shaping the market.

Looking for a more reliable transportation strategy? Request a free quote for your next shipment and see how Trinity helps shippers stay flexible in changing market conditions.

Market data sourced from FreightWaves SONAR, the Logistics Managers’ Index, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Market conditions and index values reflect the latest available data at the time of publication and are subject to change. 

Get the latest insights shaping the logistics industry with Trinity’s July 2026 Freight Market Update, powered by our Freightwaves Sonar subscription.

A Market in Transition 

The freight market rarely changes overnight. Instead, it evolves through a series of shifts across the supply chain, beginning with imports, flowing through domestic transportation networks, and ultimately influencing carrier capacity. 

This month’s FreightWaves SONAR data highlights three interconnected trends shaping the market. Inbound ocean volumes remain elevated, domestic freight demand continues recovering, and carrier rejection rates remain elevated compared to one year ago. 

While each metric tells part of the story, together they point to a freight market that continues moving toward a healthier balance between supply and demand. 

30 Second Market Pulse 

If you only have a minute, here’s this month’s freight snapshot. 

• Inbound ocean container volumes remain above their recent six-month average.  

• Domestic freight demand continues recovering from the lows experienced earlier this year.  

• Carrier rejection rates remain significantly higher than they were throughout much of 2025.  

• Capacity conditions continue varying across regional freight markets.  

• Overall market conditions continue pointing toward a more balanced freight environment. 

Imports Continue Feeding Domestic Freight 

Import activity remains one of the leading indicators of domestic freight movement. 

Inbound ocean container volumes have remained above their recent six-month average, suggesting imported freight continues entering the domestic transportation network at a healthy pace. While import activity naturally fluctuates throughout the year, continued strength provides an encouraging signal for freight moving through the supply chain. 

As containers move through U.S. ports, they create demand across drayage, intermodal, and truckload transportation before ultimately reaching manufacturers, distribution centers, and retailers. 

While import volumes alone do not determine market conditions, they remain an important indicator to watch as freight continues flowing inland. 

Domestic Freight Demand Continues Recovering 

Following a slower start to 2026, freight volumes have steadily improved throughout the spring and into early summer. 

While activity has moderated slightly in recent weeks, freight demand remains well above the lows experienced earlier this year, reflecting continued improvement as the market enters the second half of 2026. 

Rather than experiencing a sudden surge, freight volumes have shown a gradual and sustained recovery. Combined with strengthening import activity, the trend suggests freight continues moving through the domestic transportation network at a healthier pace than it was just a few months ago. 

Capacity Continues Tightening 

As freight demand continues improving, carrier behavior continues evolving alongside it. 

Current outbound tender rejection rates remain significantly higher than they were during the same period last year and continue running well above recent averages. While today’s market remains well below the extraordinary capacity constraints experienced in 2021 and early 2022, rejection rates have steadily recovered from the historic lows that characterized much of 2023 and 2024. Taken together, these trends suggest the industry continues moving away from a prolonged period of excess capacity toward a more balanced freight environment. 

For shippers, the takeaway is not that capacity is unavailable. Rather, carrier availability is becoming increasingly dependent on market conditions, equipment type, and lane. 

Regional Market Watch 

One Freight Market Doesn’t Tell the Whole Story 

National indicators provide valuable context, but regional markets help explain where those changes are occurring first. 

Looking across several major freight hubs, carrier rejection rates remain elevated, although the pace and intensity vary by market. Import gateways, manufacturing centers, and major distribution markets are each responding differently as freight demand continues strengthening. 

Savannah, GA 

Savannah recorded the highest rejection rate among the markets reviewed this month. As one of the nation’s fastest-growing port markets, elevated rejection rates suggest continued demand moving through the Southeast and into inland distribution networks. While rejection rates have eased slightly from recent highs, capacity remains considerably tighter than earlier this year and well above the market’s recent average.

Atlanta, GA 

Atlanta continues exhibiting one of the highest rejection rates among the markets reviewed. As a major Southeast distribution hub, elevated rejection rates suggest sustained freight demand and continued carrier selectivity. 

Dallas, TX 

Dallas has experienced a steady climb in rejection rates throughout 2026. Manufacturing activity, regional distribution, and cross border freight continue supporting a consistently active transportation market. 

Chicago, IL 

Chicago remains one of the nation’s largest freight gateways. While rejection rates have fluctuated throughout the year, they continue trending well above where they began, reflecting ongoing freight movement across both truckload and intermodal networks. 

Harrisburg, PA 

Harrisburg has maintained relatively steady rejection rates while supporting consistent retail replenishment and Northeast distribution activity. Although less volatile than other markets, carrier capacity remains tighter than earlier this year.

Ontario, CA 

Ontario experienced one of the more noticeable increases during the second quarter. As one of the country’s largest inland distribution markets supporting West Coast imports, the trend coincides with continued strength in inbound ocean freight moving into domestic transportation networks. 

Looking Ahead 

The freight calendar continues to evolve. Instead of waiting for a clearly defined peak season, transportation demand is increasingly being influenced by a combination of import activity, inventory strategies, manufacturing expansion, infrastructure investment, and changing global trade patterns. 

This month’s data reflects that shift. Import activity remains healthy, domestic freight demand continues recovering, and carrier rejection rates have steadily increased from the historic lows experienced over the past two years. 

While traditional seasonal trends still matter, they are becoming just one of several factors influencing freight movement throughout the year. 

As the industry moves deeper into the second half of 2026, understanding where demand is developing may become just as important as understanding how much demand exists. Regional market conditions, transportation mode, and freight mix will continue shaping how capacity responds in the months ahead. 

What We’re Watching Next Month 

As we move into August, these are the market indicators our Team will be watching closely. 

Import Activity

Will inbound ocean volumes remain above recent averages and continue supporting domestic freight movement?

Freight Demand

Can outbound tender volumes maintain the steady recovery established throughout the first half of 2026?  

Carrier Capacity 

Will rejection rates remain elevated as season freight activity increases, or begin stabilizing as additional capacity enters the market?

Regional Markets

Which freight markets continue tightening, and do regional trends begin influencing broader national conditions?

Intermodal

Will strengthening import activity and continued domestic freight demand create additional momentum for intermodal transportation?

Don’t Let Market Shifts catch you off guard

Freight conditions can shift quickly and have a major impact on your transportation strategy. Subscribe to receive our monthly Freight Market Update in your inbox and also have the option to receive our Weekly News update for a quick Friday morning snapshot of what’s shaping the market.

Looking for a more reliable transportation strategy? Request a free quote for your next shipment and see how Trinity helps shippers stay flexible in changing market conditions.

Get the latest insights shaping the logistics industry with Trinity’s June 2026 Freight Market Update, powered by our Freightwaves Sonar subscription.

Rail’s Slow, Steady Ascent

The conversation for the last 6 months has been predominantly around the happenings in the truckload market.   

Rightfully so, it accounts for 70% of the volume moved in this country. But we don’t want to sleep on the happenings with the intermodal market. Like truckload rates, intermodal rates have been climbing particularly for spot freight.  

Figure 1.1 shows the rate creep via the yellow line for spot shipments, versus the blue line which highlights contract rates for container moves. While it’s not the 200% increase we have seen on the truckload side, intermodal spot rates have risen 15% year-over-year.   

Increasing volumes, as shippers look to stay ahead of inventory churn and transit times are not as important, have allowed rail carriers to be selective in their accepted freight, almost discouraging the random, spot shipment volumes.   

Shippers should anticipate spot rates to continue their slow climb, soon to be followed by increases in contract volume. 

Rejection Isn’t Resting

Rejection rates for truckload freight continue to remain elevated.   

Flatbed rejections have cooled a bit but still holding at one of every three tenders being rejected by carriers.   

With produce season upon us, reefers get the spotlight for the bulk of those freight moves, and rejection rates are reflecting that. 25% of the time carriers are saying no to those moves which require temperature regulated transit.   

And while not to the level of the other major equipment types, van rejections are hovering in the 18% range. The days of single digit rejection rates are well behind us and look for this trend to continue for the foreseeable future. 

Flat-Out Busy

Speaking of flatbeds, freight volumes for this move type continue to perform above the past several years (Figure 3.1).   

There is always the surge that happens in early spring, but adding to that this year has been the need for materials in the construction of numerous data centers across the country. We are just getting started with spending allocated for data center construction, a trend that will continue for the next 5 years, if not longer.   

Don’t Let Market Shifts catch you off guard

Freight conditions can shift quickly and have a major impact on your transportation strategy. Subscribe to receive our monthly Freight Market Update in your inbox and also have the option to receive our Weekly News update for a quick Friday morning snapshot of what’s shaping the market.

Looking for a more reliable transportation strategy? Request a free quote for your next shipment and see how Trinity helps shippers stay flexible in changing market conditions.

Get the latest insights shaping the logistics industry with Trinity’s May 2026 Freight Market Update, powered by our Freightwaves Sonar subscription.

A Market in Transition 

Much of the recent conversations have been around the rate at which carriers are rejecting shipments where a contracted rate is in place with the shipper.  

Figure 1.1 shows that elevation over the last 90 days, being led by the flatbed sector with a rejection rate of just over 1 out of every 3 shipments. What has not been getting as much press is the overall volume of freight in the industry as seen in Figure 1.2. 

Sure, it’s anticipated that April and May see the effects of produce as we head towards the early summer peak freight months. But we’re seeing volumes that are trending 5-10% higher than last year for the last few months.  

Well wait a minute, if the volumes are trending up, then why are the overall tender rejection rates trending slightly down? The simple answer is that shippers have right-sized pricing guides to reflect the market.  

For all of ’24 and ’25, there was not much movement in the freight rates. That changed almost overnight at the start of this year, and it has taken a few months for shippers to adjust.  

While a slight softening in rejection rates suggests a better rate and volume balance, an average rejection rate of almost 14% shows a slight advantage to carriers when it comes to rate negotiations. 

The Compliance Impact Grows 

The chatter is not as heavy around the impact of drivers being taken out of the market due to non-compliance with the English language proficiency mandate, but it is still happening and impacting overall capacity.

Figure 2.1 shows a decline over the last year with the count of for-hire carriers, with a reduction of about 3% over the past year. Conversely, the number of drivers being sidelined because of failing to understand basic commands and road signs in English has increased over that same time. On average, 83 drivers are being placed out of commission daily. 

While nobody likes to see people being placed in a position of not being able to work, from a safety perspective, for those being entrusted with the safe operation of an 80,000-pound vehicle on U.S. roads, being able to understand warnings and potential hazards is paramount. 

Imports Picking Back Up 

With all the talk about domestic over-the-road volumes, it can be easy to forget what is happening at our U.S. ports.  

There are several overhanging themes, with the global trade war and the happenings in the Strait of Hormuz. Figure 3.1 shows the impact on inbound container volumes, a slight decline versus prior years year-to-date, but recent volumes have slightly surged ahead of the 2025 pace.  

It’s anticipated that volumes will start to increase as we head towards peak season, with more than normal volume of this import freight traveling to its final destination via rail versus over-the-road. 

Don’t Let Market Shifts catch you off guard

Freight conditions can shift quickly and have a major impact on your transportation strategy. Subscribe to receive our monthly Freight Market Update in your inbox and also have the option to receive our Weekly News update for a quick Friday morning snapshot of what’s shaping the market.

Looking for a more reliable transportation strategy? Request a free quote for your next shipment and see how Trinity helps shippers stay flexible in changing market conditions.

Get the latest insights shaping the logistics industry with Trinity’s April 2026 Freight Market Update, powered by our Freightwaves Sonar subscription.

FUELING THE FIRE 

It certainly feels like we must start the market update with the impact fuel is having on rates.  

Figure 1.1 looks at the average rate for a truck (blue line) being above $3.00 per mile. The white line is less fuel, currently $2.21 per mile. The $0.87 variance is the impact of fuel being, on average, at $5.86 per mile. Keep in mind that is the average, with the lowest cost per diesel in the Midwest at $5.30 per gallon compared to the other extreme being California at $7.56 per gallon.   

For many shippers, having a fuel surcharge table in place accounts for the ebbs and flows of fuel prices. For shippers that rely primarily on spot rates, that increase has accounted for an additional $300-$350 for an average 700-mile shipment.   

Unfortunately, with the continuing Iran conflict, shippers need to budget for this cost increase for the foreseeable future. Even if the conflict is resolved today, fuel prices will remain high. While we would see oil prices stabilize almost overnight, the same would not be the case for oil refineries and ultimately the price at the pump.  That’s because the refineries would still be processing higher-cost crude that they have already purchased and thus looking to get the return on their investment at $100+ per barrel.   

Relief at the pump could happen as soon as a few weeks, but most likely it will take a month for that reduced cost of oil to show up in gas and diesel prices.  

THE ENERGY SECTOR SURGE 

The flatbed sector continues to lead the way with regard to rejection of freight tenders.   

Figure 2.1 shows the rejection index just shy of 40%. While this is encouraging, especially considering rejections are typically not high in the first quarter of the year, the underlying reason for the rejections may not be sustainable.   

First, it’s not being driven by the housing market. A depressed housing market was clearly reflected by the low rejection rate seen through much of 2025.   

Rather, what seems to be the underlying driver is the energy sector, particularly the new data center builds. Many people think of semiconductor chips when they hear data centers. It takes a lot of copper, steel, and concrete to build these facilities. Flatbeds are the primary resource for delivery of these goods. 

DRIVER DOWNSHIFT 

Lastly, the slow exodus of carriers continues as indicated in Figure 3.1.   

This worry for shippers has been further fueled by the uptick in volumes as shown by the white line below, and this is an environment where produce is not in full swing.   

There are several initiatives around the quality of drivers on the road, and the forward movement of Delilah’s Law in Congress will make a tight-capacity situation even tighter. At its most extreme impact, we could realize a world where 15% of the current driver population is taken off the road. This won’t be an overnight impact, but as this would be a law versus a mandate, 12 months to see this impact is very realistic.   

Shippers will need to revisit their freight playbook to ensure goods are leaving their docks in a timely and safe manner. 

Stay Ahead of the Market

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The Strait of Hormuz closure and the supply chain disruption we’re currently seeing from it  – sure feels like we’ve seen something like this before, and it did not resolve quickly. 

Remember the Suez Canal? Back in 2021, it became blocked for several days but took months for supply chains to fully recover. The COVID pandemic followed a similar pattern – a sudden shock to global supply chains, exposing just how fragile and interconnected they really are.  

That’s the reality of today’s supply chains. Things can break quickly but then often take much longer to stabilize. Even short-lived disruptions can create long recovery cycles in freight. 

The current Iran War is shaping up to be another example in supply chain disruption history, except with a different kind of impact. This isn’t just about delayed shipments or port congestion. It’s a multi-layer event that’s affecting fuel markets, manufacturing inputs, and freight demand simultaneously.  

In this article, we’ll break down what’s happening in the Strait of Hormuz, why it matters, how it’s impacting supply chains now, and what logistics leaders should be doing to stay ahead and stay resilient.  

Iran War and Its Connection to the Strait of Hormuz 

The current disruption traces back to the escalation of the Iran War on February 28, 2026, when U.S. and Israeli forces initiated strikes on Iran, prompting retaliation across the region and sharply restricted access to the Strait of Hormuz. This took place after years of rising tension with Iran and previous attempts to negotiate were unsuccessful.  

Even ahead of the war initiation, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Corps (IRGC) had seized several foreign oil tankers and threatened violence in the Strait of Hormuz.  

As of today, there is sustained disruption. Iranian attacks have targeted oil infrastructure in the region, including vessels in the Strait. There have also been several underwater mines employed in the Strait, noted by American intelligence assessments.  

And while there are currently no physical blockades preventing ships from traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, there have been threats along with drone and missile attacks that are preventing tankers from going through.  

Since the outbreak of the war, there has been a drop of 95% of vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, falling from a daily average of 130 ships per day down to fewer than 100 over the last several weeks.  

While Iran has since indicated that “non-hostile” vessels may transit with coordination, uncertainty remains high, which alone is enough to shape behavior in global shipping.  

Why the Strait of Hormuz is So Important to Supply Chains 

The Strait of Hormuz isn’t just another shipping lanes. It’s one of the most critical chokepoints in global supply chains because: 

• Roughly 20% of global petroleum consumption moves through it 

• Around 20% of LNG exports pass through it 

• Nearly 1/3 of global fertilizer trade relies on this route 

Any disruption to the Strait impacts the global pricing of fuel almost immediately. And it’s not just Iranian oil at stake here. The Strait of Hormuz is a key export route for major energy producers in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and UAE.  

There are very few alternative lane options that exist to export oil if the Strait is impacted as it’s one of the only routes capable of handling the world’s largest crude carriers at scale.  

That’s what makes this different from events like the Suez Canal blockage. Suez primarily impacted containerized goods, affecting certain markets. But Hormuz impacts energy and energy affects everything.  

How It’s Affecting Supply Chains 

Fuel  

The most immediate and visible impact of the Iran War is fuel. Consumers saw it first at the pump. Carriers are now seeing it through rising operating costs. Shippers see it in the form of fuel surcharges and rate adjustments. 

While fuel is the first domino to fall, it’s not the last. Higher fuel costs ripple outward into consumer spending and reduced demand. Over time, that demand pressure will feed right back into the freight markets.  

Ocean Freight 

So far, the impact on ocean freight has been more measured than expected. Most carriers have already rerouted shipments to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, import flows have remained relatively stable, although transit times are increasing and costs are rising. Overall, networks are still functioning. 

At this stage, this is not a port shutdown or capacity collapse scenario – think more rerouting and added cost pressure.  

Domestic Freight 

The more significant shift from the Iran War may hit domestically, especially if it continues.  

Recently, the U.S. Pentagon has requested additional funding for defense spending related to the Iran War. If that goes through, there will indeed be a ramp up in the manufacturing and movement of related raw materials, components, and finished goods. This could create a potential upside in pressure on domestic freight demand, particularly in flatbed, specialized freight, and industrial supply chains. 

Industry-Level Pressure: Sectors Seeing the Most Disruption 

The effects of the Iran War and the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz are not confined to transportation. They are pushing directly into the core of global production. Industries that rely heavily on energy and petrochemical inputs are feeling the pressure first, and in many cases, most acutely.  

Automotive 

Production depends on a wide range of energy-intensive materials, from coatings and plastics to battery components and semiconductors. At the same time, the Gulf region plays a dual role as both a key shipping route and a major end market for vehicles, especially premium autos.  

Fertilizer & Agrochemicals 

Agriculture is also under strain, driven largely by the surge in fertilizer prices. Fertilizer prices have surged from $400 to $700 per metric ton since the Iran War began, placing pressure on farmers already operating on tight margins. 

Fertilizer production is closely tied to natural gas and petrochemical inputs, so any disruption in energy flows quickly translates into higher agricultural costs. It will impact agriculture cycles, crop production, and overall food pricing, with a downstream effect on food supply chains. There are strong possibilities supply chains may see shortages and increased costs, with early warnings of food security already emerging in the market.  

Packaging & Materials 

Compared to other materials, plastics (petrochemical based) and aluminum (energy-intensive) are both seeing cost increases. As raw material prices rise, manufacturers are forced to make difficult decisions to either absorb the cost, pass it on, or reduce production. 

What ties these industries together is that they are foundational. They all sit upstream of countless other supply chains, meaning disruption here doesn’t stay contained. It cascades outward, impacting everything from consumer goods to industrial manufacturing.  

Why This Supply Chain Disruption Will Outlast the Conflict 

Even if tension in the Strait of Hormuz eases, the supply chain disruption won’t resolve overnight. That’s because the real challenge isn’t just the event itself, but the imbalance it creates in freight markets. 

When shipping patterns need to shift, equipment doesn’t end up where it’s needed. Containers accumulate in some regions while becoming scarce in others. Ports experience congestion unevenly, with some recovering quickly while others remain backed up. 

At the same time, contract pricing struggles to keep pace with rapidly changing market conditions, leaving a lag between real costs and agreed upon rates. 

Carriers adjust their networks through blank sailings and service changes, but those adjustments take time to stabilize. Meanwhile, inventory flows become misaligned, with goods arriving too early, too late, or in the wrong place entirely. 

This is why recovering in freight markets often takes months, not weeks. Stability only returns once balance is restored, and that process is inherently gradual.  

Where Disruption Compounds: First-Mile and Drayage 

While much of the attention is often placed on ocean transit and long-haul transportation, disruption tends to compound most quickly at the beginning of the supply chain. 

Ports become immediate pressure points, especially when volumes shift unevenly or vessels arrive outside of expected schedules. From there, even small delays in drayage can trigger a chain reaction.  

A missed pickup or delayed container can impact warehouse operations, delay inventory availability, and ultimately disrupt production schedules. 

This is where minor issues escalate into broader operational challenges. Without strong visibility and flexibility at the first mile, it becomes significantly harder to recover downstream. 

Freight Market Outlook: Mixed Signals Ahead 

The current freight environment is defined by a mix of stability and volatility, depending on where you look. 

Short-Term 

Import flows have remained relatively stable, largely because ocean carriers have already adapted by rerouting shipments. However, that stability is being offset by rising costs, driven primarily by fuel.  

Mid-Term 

Looking further out, the picture is more complex. If the Iran War continues, increased defense spending and industrial production could drive new freight demand, particularly in domestic markets. At the same time, regional imbalances are likely to emerge as supply chains adjust unevenly.  

Long-Term 

Over the long term, one outcome appears increasingly likely: a higher baseline cost structure across transportation modes. Contracts will be repriced, and what was once considered a temporary spike may become part of the new normal.  

Beyond Freight: Inflation and Stagflation Risk 

The impact of the disruption extends beyond logistics into the broader economy. Those higher costs feed directly into production, increasing the price of goods. At the same time, consumers facing higher everyday expenses tend to pull back on spending, putting pressure on demand.  

This combination of rising costs paired with slowing growth is what creates the risk of stagflation. It’s a challenging environment not just for supply chains, but for the economy as a whole.  

What Logistics Leaders Should Be Watching 

In a situation like this, staying informed is critical. However, not all signals carry equal weight, so here are the ones you should be watching.  

Strait Activity 

Activity in the Strait of Hormuz, including vessel movement and transit patterns, offers a real-time view of risk levels. 

Oil & Diesel Price Trends 

Oil and diesel price trends provide early insight into cost pressures that will ripple across supply chains. 

Carrier Behavior 

Rerouting decisions, service adjustments, and capacity shifts can indicate how the market is responding to ongoing disruption.  

Regional Congestion Shifts & War Risk Insurance Costs 

These patterns and changes can help paint a clearer picture of whether conditions are stabilizing or escalating. 

Altogether, these indicators can provide the context needed to make informed decisions during this uncertain environment.  

How Shippers Can Strengthen Their Strategy 

In today’s market, resilience comes down to preparation and adaptability.  

Build Flexibility into Routing & Mode Selection 

Shippers that rely too heavily on a single lane, port, or mode are more exposed when disruption occurs. Building flexibility into these strategies will allow for faster adjustments when conditions change. 

Reassess Fuel in Budgets & Contracts 

With the current impact, fuel can no longer be treated as a stable cost input. Budgeting and contract strategies need to account for ongoing volatility. 

Increase First-Mile Visibility & Drayage 

Visibility is important here because the small disruptions here can quickly escalate to long-term breakdowns. Understanding where freight is, and where it might get delayed, gives teams the ability to act before issues compound. 

Evaluate Inventory Strategy 

For critical materials, consider maintaining a buffer of stock to help absorb short-term shocks and prevent production interruptions.  

Strengthen Logistics Relationships 

Strong relationships across the supply chain matter more than ever in uncertain conditions. Communication and collaboration often outweigh price as the most valuable assets during this time.  

Disruption is Today’s Baseline. Resilience is Your Competitive Edge. 

If there’s one consistent pattern in global supply chains today, it’s that disruption is no longer the exception – it’s the baseline. And these disruptions rarely resolve as quickly as the headlines fade. 

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz makes that clear. Even without a full closure, the ripple effects are already moving through fuel markets, industrial production, and freight networks. Those effects will continue to unfold in the weeks and months ahead. 

While in this kind of environment, just having access to capacity isn’t enough.  

The companies that stay ahead during this event are doing more than waiting around for things to stabilize. They’re the ones actively monitoring the signals, adjusting their strategies, and making informed decisions before disruption fully materializes in their network. 

Often, these companies have access to what’s most critical during disruption – the right partner.  

At Trinity Logistics, we don’t just arrange the movement of your freight. We help customers understand what’s happening in the market, what it means for their business, and what to do next.  

With real-time market visibility and more than 45 years of experience navigating disruption, we help you stay proactive instead of reactive.  

Because supply chain resilience isn’t about avoiding disruption. It’s about being prepared for it, adapting to it, and continuing to move forward while your competition is still trying to catch up. 

Trinity Logistics is proud to celebrate its parent company, Burris Logistics, for earning the prestigious 2026 USA TODAY Top Workplaces Award – a recognition that reflects the strength of the culture shared across all Burris companies. 

The USA TODAY Top Workplaces recognition honors organizations with 150 or more team members that are committed to building strong, people-first cultures. Out of more than 42,000 invited organizations, winners were selected based on authentic team member feedback captured through a confidential survey conducted by Energage, the HR research and technology company behind the Top Workplaces program since 2006. The results are calculated based on employee responses to statements about Workplace Experience Themes, which are proven indicators of high performance. 

For Trinity Logistics, this recognition reinforces the culture our Team experiences every day – one built on trust, collaboration, and a shared purposed of improving lives and supply chains by solving tough problems. As part of the Burris family of companies, alongside Honor Foods and Eagle Business Credit, Trinity contributes to a larger mission that prioritizes both people and performance. 

“This award is an honor that truly reflects the voices of the Team Members at Trinity Logistics and those across Burris,” said Sarah Ruffcorn, President of Trinity. “It speaks to the special culture we have built together- grounded in trust, collaboration, and a shared commitment to improve lives and supply chains. All of us at Trinity are incredibly proud to be a part of it!”  

Founded in 1925, Burris Logistics recently celebrated its 100^th year as a proud, fifth-generation-run, family-owned business. Today, its companies collectively support businesses nationwide through foodservice redistribution, freight management, logistics technology, and factoring. 

Team Members across Trinity and the broader Burris organization consistently point to supportive leadership, opportunities for growth, and strong values as what make this culture stand out. The environment is described as collaborative, empowering, and positive – all qualities that directly impact how Trinity and all of Burris serve its customers, carriers, and partners.  

“This recognition means a lot to us because it comes directly from our Team. Our purpose statement, ‘Improving lives and supply chains by solving tough problems’ is really the driving force of all that we do. We believe that when we take care of our people, we’re also taking care of our customers, partners, and each other,” said Donnie Burris, CEO of Burris Logistics. “I’m proud of the culture our teams have built across our companies. It’s about showing up every day, supporting each other, and continuing to grow together.”  

“Being named a USA TODAY Top Workplace is an honor because it speaks directly to the culture our Team Members help create every day. At Honor Foods, we are committed to building an environment where people feel valued, heard, and connected to a shared purpose. This recognition belongs to our team and the culture they make stronger through their dedication and heart,” said JD Spangler, President of Honor Foods.  

In addition to this award, Burris Logistics has seen record scores on safety, placing its companies in the upper quartile for its industry, along with some of the lowest turnover rates in company history. 

Trinity is proud to be part of the Burris family and this shared success.

ABOUT BURRIS LOGISTICS COMPANIES 

At Burris Logistics, you’re more than an employee — you’re part of a purpose-driven team. As a proud fifth-generation, family-owned company founded in 1925, we blend innovation and tradition to deliver industry-leading service through our companies: Honor Foods, Trinity Logistics, and Eagle Business Credit. Headquartered in Milford, Delaware, with locations nationwide, our team embraces a culture of service. Our commitment to improving lives and supply chains isn’t just a purpose statement—it’s how we operate every day. We foster a workplace where teamwork fuels opportunity: competitive benefits like parental leave, tuition reimbursement, and fertility and adoption assistance reflect our dedication to growth and well-being. The result? A workplace where innovation thrives, collaboration is natural, and every Team Member has what they need to succeed and deliver Personal.Service.Excellence. in every interaction. 

ABOUT ENERGAGE 

Making the world a better place to work together.^TM 

Energage is a purpose-driven company that helps organizations turn employee feedback into useful business intelligence and credible employer recognition through Top Workplaces. Built on 20 years of culture research and the results from 30 million employees surveyed across more than 80,000 organizations,  Energage delivers the most accurate competitive benchmark available. With access to a unique combination of patented analytic tools and expert guidance, Energage customers lead the competition with an engaged workforce and an opportunity to gain recognition for their people-first approach to culture. For more information or to nominate your organization, visit energage.com or topworkplaces.com. 

Get the latest insights shaping the logistics industry with Trinity’s March 2026 Freight Market Update, powered by our Freightwaves Sonar subscription.

The Rejection Revival

There are definitely things afoot that can flip the market as we currently know it.   

For now, let’s talk about the word “no.”   

Carriers were not used to saying that word for much of the last 3 years.  

Recently, that has not been the case. Rejection of tenders to carriers started to creep upwards in December 2025.   

Maybe it was a seasonal thing. But then it continued into January.   

Maybe it was related to the weather. Yet here we are on the cusp of spring, and rejections still remain elevated at 14% (Figure 1.1).   

What is even more impressive is that the rejection rates we are seeing on open-deck shipments are currently hovering around 40%.   

Wait, did you say flatbeds, at a time when typically, you don’t see much activity for that type of equipment, are seeing a 40% rejection rate?!  Yes, we did.  

The Midwest Surge

One needs to look no further than the Midwest to get an idea of where the capacity crunch is manifesting itself.   

It’s common to see dark shades of blue (Figure 2.1), measuring the severity of rejection rates, on the East and West Coast states. Seeing it this pronounced in the Midwest, in the winter months, is an abnormality.   

Part of it can be attributed to a demand for refrigerated trailers to keep product from freezing during transit. Another part can be attributed to an increase in the manufacturing side (Figure 2.2).   

The manufacturing index has recently broken the 50-score barrier, which typically signals growth, and the fact that the rejection index for flatbeds is mirroring that, is no coincidence. Much has been made of the recent development happening around new data centers. There’s a good bet much of that increased activity is directly related to the construction of them. 

The Capacity Reset Continues…

Finally, the exit of carriers in the freight market continues (Figure 3.1).   

Carriers that were already under pressure from increased costs and stagnant rates (although recent spot rates have provided some relief), along with mandates and regulation enforcement, not to mention the ability to simply enter the trucking market being more stringent, has allowed the capacity side to find an equilibrium after the surge experienced years earlier that cannibalized rates.  

Stay Ahead of the Market

Enjoyed the February 2026 freight market update? Subscribe to our email list to receive next month’s delivered straight to your inbox in our monthly newsletter. Looking for more frequent insights? Choose our Weekly News Update for logistics news in your inbox every Friday morning.

Get the latest insights shaping the logistics industry with Trinity’s February 2026 Freight Market Update, powered by our Freightwaves Sonar subscription.

last year’s playbook doesn’t work anymore

What a difference a year makes! This time last year, carriers were saying “yes” on almost every load tender that came their way. Fast forward 12 months, and tender rejection rates are 2-3x what they were at the start of 2025.  

Figure 1.1 shows the breakdown by van (yellow), reefer (blue) and flatbed (white). 

The recent weather certainly has been a secondary catalyst to an already escalating rejection trend seen from carriers towards the end of last year. As a result, it has (Figure 1.2) pushed spot rates 20% higher year-over-year, even as volume has remained stagnant. 

carriers are keeping their options open

With spot rates on the rise, the delta compared to contract rates has become almost nil (Figure 2.1).  

Contract carriers may be constrained by lack of capacity versus several months ago in certain areas, however it’s also plausible that carriers (and typically those that don’t have a minimum acceptance threshold on contracted freight) are very capable of providing the needed capacity, but simply hedging their bets on a better paying, similar lane on the spot market.  

Shippers are no doubt having to reach further down their list of carriers and even forcing more freight to the spot market.

carriers are keeping their options open

While Figure 3.1 below, which shows the inbound container volume to the U.S., could give reason for optimism when you compare the current year (blue) to past years, it’s a bit of fool’s gold for continuing the ascent.  

This year, the Chinese New Year (also known as the Lunar New Year) will occur between February 17^th and March 3^rd. Prior years have seen the New Year begin in late January or early February. U.S. inventories have declined over the past year, and tariff or no tariff, shippers will have no choice to restock in the face of consumer demand.  

It’s anticipated that imports will follow a traditional seasonal pattern sans the later than normal decline that always happens around the Chinese New Year. 

Stay Ahead of the Market

Enjoyed the February 2026 freight market update? Subscribe to our email list to receive next month’s delivered straight to your inbox in our monthly newsletter. Looking for more frequent insights? Choose our Weekly News Update for logistics news in your inbox every Friday morning.