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What to Expect in the Short-Term

Well, so much for a recession. The U.S. is anticipating year-over-year growth of 2.8 percent in 2024 with regards to gross domestic product (GDP). That percentage of growth appears to be trending less in calendar 2025, with moderate growth forecast through the end of 2029 (Figure 1.1).  

Generally, for every one percent of GDP growth, that typically translates into 1.5 percent growth in over-the-road truckload volume. Based on those projections, we expect freight volumes to climb by four to five percent in the coming year.

Conditions are also turning more favorable for a pendulum swing to the side of the carriers. Two reasons for the bullish outlook – dwindling capacity and tariffs (be it threat or real), simple supply and demand.  

INCHING CLOSER TO BALANCE

On the capacity side, the spread between contract and spot rates, which was near $0.80 per mile in the middle of 2022, has now fallen below $0.50 per mile. Keep in mind contract is almost always above spot sans latter 2020 and early 2021. 

The gap has closed primarily due to contract rates receding, from the $2.30 range in early ’24 to now being $0.15 less, as illustrated by. Figure 2.. Figure 2.2 shows the net change in for-hire carriers versus the tender rejection rate. Since mid-2022, carriers have started to shun the market as higher costs to operate & lower rates made sustainability a challenge.  

Where does shrinking capacity first show up? In the tender rejection rates. Carriers will say no to a guaranteed rate load either because they have no equipment in the area or there is a more favorable paying load available.  

Rejection rates cresting the five percent mark may not sound significant, but keep in mind rejection rates were in the two to three percent range as we started this calendar year. Eight to 10 percent is a more balanced market, and we are close to that. Usually, rejection rates in double digits signify more pricing leverage is held by the carrier community.

The other driving factor is around demand. While there are some sectors showing slight gains, the November election could be the spark that drives a glut of freight movement.  

With Republicans poised to control the White House and Congress, impending tariffs will drive a flurry of activity as shippers look to move goods prior to an imposed increase in cost, This is likely a short-term surge as “too much inventory” is a real thing, and once tariffs are imposed, consumers ultimately will feel the brunt of increased costs and could hamper purchasing. However, the next pivot point will be around movement of production to domestic U.S. or near-shore locations.  

After a blah few years, things are about to get interesting.

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Feels like 2022

For the majority of this year, volumes have seen their traditional seasonal patterns and have been trending above 2023 levels. Many have commented that market balance will be driven more by carrier attrition versus an event that spurs freight volumes.  

2022 was a pretty good year from an industry standpoint. Volumes were still elevated (certainly not like we saw in 2021) and capacity was inline. While it may be a blip on the radar, we have now seen the Outbound Tender Volume Index eclipse 2022 levels for the first time in two years as seen in Figure 1.1.

I think it is still too early to pin the volume uptick on the interest rate reduction or the recent hurricanes that severely impacted states in the southeast, but these events, and any potential storms that might still pop up (hurricane season isn’t quite over yet), could impact freight volumes in the coming months. Combined with consumers continuing to spend, volumes could remain consistent through the end of the year versus following their traditional end of year downward movement.

FINE….FOR NOW

While there was a sigh of relief from many with the ILA and USMX reaching a deal on wage increases for dock workers, this does not mean that everything is resolved, and potential port disruptions could occur at the 20-something docks along the East and Gulf coast.  

Union-member wages were the major bargaining chip that was agreed upon last week, with dock workers receiving an immediate pay increase, with yearly pay increases to follow. When all increases have taken effect, dock workers will see a 62 percent increase in pay. One issue that was not finalized was the use of automation at select ports, which the labor union has opposition to full and semi-automation. The two sides will continue their negotiation discussions, with a timetable of three months from now to finalize a deal.  

If these points can’t be resolved, it may be rinse and repeat with the threat of another strike as we get into the start of 2025.  

Speaking of the recent shut down of port activity, it will take a week or so to work through the container backlog. This, along with the disruption in shipping patterns caused by the recent hurricanes, has been impacting tender rejection rates as seen in Figure 2.1.

Rejection rates crested the five percent mark recently. As port activity comes back online, expect the volume for short haul shipments (<250 miles) to remain elevated as also seen in Figure 2.1.

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YES, IT IS IMPORT-ANT

There has been much buzz in the last month around inbound container volumes to U.S. ports. There are 300+ ports of entry for goods into the country, with much of that volume handled by the top 20. Most of that buzz is around the uptick in volume.  

In figure 1.1, you will see for the port of Los Angeles, the largest in the country, that container volume is up almost 38 percent. That’s certainly impressive, but the neighboring port (Long Beach) was up a staggering 60 percent.

Many would anticipate this similarly impacting the outbound over-the-road volume for that market. And yes, while we see in Figure 1.2 via the blue line, there is a noticeable increase from what it was heading into the Memorial Day holiday, but it is not a direct correlation. The beige line represents the domestic rail volume from that same market, and unlike what we experienced in the “Covid years”, the rails have been a bigger mover of goods versus the bottlenecks we saw back then.  

We should expect to see import volumes continue through the next few months. As goods produced overseas have become cheaper to buy, major retailers have taken advantage of these discounts with the anticipation of robust consumer spending. Remember, almost three-fourths of inbound volume is directly related to consumer purchasing. Good news for consumers as these retailers will want to liquidate this inventory quickly at lower prices.

NOT FAR FROM HEALTHY

While not in balance, the spread between contract and spot rates continues to shrink, now sitting about $0.60 per mile higher on the contract side. Keep in mind this gap was in the $0.75 to $0.90 for much of the past year. Almost in lockstep has been the tender rejection index. It has continued its slow upward movement as seen by the green line in Figure 2.1.  

This can be attributed to capacity continuing to shrink slightly (Figure 2.2) and contract rates moving downward. It’s rare that spot rates will eclipse contract rates, but a spread of $0.40 to $0.50 is indicative of a healthier market, and we are not far from that right now.

I spent a few days traversing the state of Tennessee recently. At one stretch of a major interstate, there was a back-up at least five miles long. Luckily for me, it was on the eastbound side, and I was heading the opposite direction.  

What struck me was the sheer number of trucks that sat idled. By my estimates, almost 80 percent of the volume was truck traffic.  And while you can’t tell if a van is loaded or not, every single flatbed had freight on it. So, ladies and gentlemen, freight is still moving in this country. While it may not feel like it, volumes are trending close to 2022 levels as seen in Figure 3.1 (blue vs. green line). They say the fourth quarter is the time when carriers make hay; so here’s to an optimistic outlook for the next four months.

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If you’ve worked in the LTL industry for any bit of time, then you know that it’s always changing. Yes, sometimes that means it gets a bit more complicated. Rates adjust. Rules and processes are modified. Despite all this, there is usually one constant – the core LTL carriers we work with. Yet, in 2023, that changed; we saw the departure of the legacy LTL carrier known as Yellow Corporation. 

The closing of such a large and well-established LTL carrier is very rare. The industry hadn’t felt the void of such a large company since Consolidated Freightways closed 20 years prior. So, what happened? Considering Yellow Corporation was the third largest LTL carrier, what happened to all the freight they handled? 

As someone with a career in LTL, I saw this happen in real-time and have directly seen its ripple effects. I can answer some of those questions and share with you my thoughts, experiences, and observations of this impactful event in LTL history. 

The Fall of Yellow Corporation

Yellow Corporation (commonly referred to as YRC) was no stranger to financial turmoil. The company was laden with debt that was worsened with the Great Recession. It almost put them into filing for bankruptcy in 2009. 

A stint of other factors after that didn’t put them in a better position when COVID-19 rolled around in 2020. YRC was granted a $700 million COVID-relief loan by the U.S. government, which it used nearly half of to cover past due payments to healthcare and pensions, payments on equipment and properties, and interest accrued by its other debts. Fast forward to 2023, and that’s where their final chapter began. 

A few months into 2023, YRC and the Teamsters Union engaged in back-and-forth negotiations. YRC wanted to change operational procedures and sought extra funding to help it pay off its debts. Teamsters disagreed with the proposed changes. We saw news articles and hit pieces about the conflict, week after week. It was nearly impossible for the industry to ignore it. 

In July, whispers began of a possible union strike that would effectively halt YRC’s freight network. This was the writing on the wall for many shippers and third-party logistics (3PL) companies. At this point, the hull had been punctured, and water pouring in. Do you stay or do you go? 

YRC and its subsidiaries were promptly disabled from countless TMS platforms. No customer wanted their freight stuck in limbo if Teamsters were to go on strike against YRC. Because of this, YRC saw a sharp decline in freight volume and tonnage. A company that was in financial disarray was now losing its primary source of revenue. 

On July 30^th, Yellow Corporation ceased all operations. The Teamsters had not agreed to the negotiations, and the 11^th hour came and went. So, what now? 

The Aftermath of YRC’s Closing

YRC’s exit affected two parties: shippers using LTL and other LTL carriers. 

For shippers using LTL, they were two buckets: those who had already begun shifting their freight to other carriers in their pricing roster and those unfortunate enough to still have most or all freight with YRC. The latter had a more difficult situation to overcome as they now had to find an LTL carrier to move their freight without paying an arm and a leg. 

For LTL carriers, YRC’s existing freight had to go somewhere, so they had to figure out how to absorb it. Carriers such as Estes, FedEx, and XPO and their capabilities were pushed to their limit, now drinking from a firehose of incoming freight. Volumes increased drastically, and with such a rapid rise came decreased capacity. 

LTL carriers were making the difficult decision to exclude certain shippers in favor of others just to service accounts and keep their networks moving without bottlenecking. This left many smaller shippers stranded with a shorter list of available LTL carriers. 

As carriers became inundated with freight, their operating ratios took a hit, and something had to be done to regain control. A season of atypical general rate increases (GRI) began. LTL carriers needed to remain profitable lest they succumb to a fate like Yellow. 

3PLs and shippers alike started getting notifications from their carrier representatives about rates going up. Shipping LTL got more expensive now that the carriers had to pick and choose who they serviced with their finite capacity. The increased rate structures also priced out shippers that were used to YRC’s competitively priced tariffs or couldn’t stomach the increases.

For many shippers and 3PLs, the immediate aftermath of the Yellow Corporation bankruptcy was unlike any they had previously experienced. 

Now, that’s the long and short of it, but how are things today? Surely, the disappearance of a significant LTL carrier like that would have lasting, irreversible affects. 

Well, yes, but also no. 

The Current Impact of YRC’s Closing

Today the LTL industry has mostly stabilized. YRC’s freight volume has dispersed, and the dust has settled. The LTL carriers have course-corrected their capacity concerns. 

After the YRC bankruptcy, there were also new questions to answer, one of which was “What happens to their assets?” Those went through the bankruptcy courts, but the LTL carriers were eager to get a piece of it. 

The purchased terminals and trailers meant increased footprint and capacity, which can be the difference between being the best and the biggest for LTL carriers. Several carriers bid to acquire the terminals left behind by Yellow Corporation.

Estes Express, a prominent national LTL carrier, was one of the larger victors in the bidding war. As one of Trinity’s carrier relationships, I asked Estes if they could share the impact YRC’s exit had on their company. Here’s what President and COO Webb Estes had to say: 

While LTL carriers, larger shippers, and 3PLs came out in the black or relatively unscathed, others did not. Smaller shippers with all their freight lanes with YRC had no backup plans except to pay increased, non-discounted LTL rates with other carriers or risk their business operations. 

How Did Trinity Logistics Fare?

At Trinity, those first few months after the bankruptcy were interesting! We saw many new shippers start a relationship with us and saw some complications in LTL carrier transit lanes that bottlenecked. Don’t worry, they were quickly resolved. Since Trinity has a broad roster of national and regional LTL carrier contracts in place, our shipper relationships were able to use our rates to course correct from the YRC closure and effectively avoid any critical disruption. 

Is the last time we’ll see an industry-shaking event in the LTL space? Likely not. For now, the industry is stable, and many LTL carriers are growing and reporting profitable earnings. 

In my 10+ years working in the LTL industry at a 3PL, the Yellow Corporation was always a top LTL carrier for us. Seeing them fade into the wind after decades of LTL service was surreal, and I felt sad for the many YRC employees I’ve grown to know. 

Despite such an impactful event, now written in the history books, it’s a year later, and the LTL landscape is still thriving (and volatile), even with one less player at the table. 

Final Thoughts

Considering the size of Yellow and the steady decline until evaporation from the industry, I actually expected more disarray from it. Sure, the first weeks after the bankruptcy had the GRIs, shipment delays, and new shipper partnerships for Trinity to handle, but after a month or two, it was relatively smooth sailing back to normal. 

I think that speaks volumes to the age we live in. The amount of technology and time-saving efficiencies that LTL carriers invest in year after year. It allowed the industry to absorb the freight volume of one of the largest LTL carriers in the world and it did so in less than 60 days! It’s kind of crazy and a testament to the LTL industry and its controlled chaos. 

Working with Yellow for so many years, I grew familiar with some of the names worked there. People we would see at conferences, have calls with or see on emails. People who had been in the industry much longer than I have, had extensive backgrounds, and grew their roots at Yellow. 

The bankruptcy landed them in the middle of it all, but many of them went on to other LTL carriers and took their experience, adding value there. I think that’s a silver lining here. Despite the financial decision of Yellow as a company, it had people on its roster that brought purpose to LTL and now these people are creating an impact for other carriers and customers alike. For how vast it is, the LTL industry can be closeknit, so to see those former Yellow employees succeed at other LTL carriers is a bright spot in this saga. 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Curt Kouts holds the Director of LTL position at Trinity Logistics. Kouts has been with Trinity and in the logistics industry for 14 years, having held several titles among carrier vetting, account management, and within the LTL Team itself. His main responsibilities as Director focus on elevating Trinity’s LTL customers’ experience, helping the LTL Team support in operations and billing, and aiding the company in overall LTL sales and success. Kouts finds the LTL industry incredibly challenging, presenting him and his Team a ton of problems that they have a passion for solving. He enjoys learning more about LTL whenever possible and overall, making LTL an experience that keeps all his customers, both internal and external, coming back.

Don’t let your company get caught off guard by CVSA Brake Safety Week, August 25th to August 31st, 2024! 

Shippers and carriers, mark your calendars! Brake Safety Week is soon approaching. This annual event aims to improve commercial vehicle safety and make our roadways safer, however it does impact those in logistics! Shippers and carriers alike can see disruption to their businesses. To keep your operations moving forward, it’s helpful to understand what Brake Safety Week entails and its effect on the overall freight market. 

• What is the CVSA? What is Brake Safety Week? 

• Brake Safety Week Inspection Procedure 

• Impact on Shippers 

• Impact on Carriers 

• How Shippers Can Prepare  

• How Carriers Can Prepare  

• Let’s Work Together

What is the CVSA? What is Brake Safety Week? 

The Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance (CVSA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to improving commercial motor vehicle safety through collaboration between law enforcement, industry stakeholders, and the public sector. In partnership with the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), the CVSA launched its Operation Airbrake program in 1998. The goal of this initiative is to improve commercial vehicle brake safety and highway crashes due to faulty brake systems.  

This initiative includes two annual events, Brake Safety Week and an unannounced one-day inspection event, that can happen at any time. During both events, commercial vehicle inspectors conduct brake safety inspections on large trucks and buses. The inspections take place across North America, so the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.  

Brake safety is an important focus because brake-related concerns or issues are the largest percentage of out-of-service violations during roadside inspections. In fact, brake safety violations were the top vehicle violation at 25.2 percent of all out-of-service violations during last year’s International Roadcheck Event.  

Each year has a primary focus surrounding brake safety, with this year’s being the condition of brake lining and pads. During roadside inspections, any commercial vehicles found to have brake-related out-of-service violations will be removed from the roadways until they can be corrected.  

Brake Safety Week Inspection Procedure 

These are the items the CVSA inspector will look over during your inspection: 

• Driver’s license 

• Registration 

• Low air warning device 

• Pushrod travel 

• Brake linings/drums 

• Air loss rate 

• Tractor protection system 

A typical inspection during Brake Safety Week will follow these steps: 

• Check air brake mechanical components 

• Check steering axle brake mechanical components 

• Build the air pressure to 90-100 PSI 

• Check brake adjustment 

• Check the tractor protection system 

• Check the air brake ABS system 

• Test low air pressure warning device 

• Test air loss rate 

• Finalize paperwork and provide results to the driver 

Why Should I Be Concerned About Brake Safety Week? 

It’s important to be aware of when Brake Safety Week takes place because of the impact it has on shipping freight. Even though it’s just one week out of the year, no one likes to be unprepared for potential disruption or delays to their business. 

Brake Safety Week Impact on Shippers 

Shippers may face potential delays, see reduced transportation capacity, and likely higher spot rates. 

Potential Delays 

There can be potential delays due to the brake safety inspections. 

Reduced Transportation Capacity 

The increased inspection effort sometimes leads carriers to strategically choose to close their business temporarily for the week to avoid any risk of fines or penalties. You might find it more difficult to secure reliable carriers for any last-minute shipments. 

Higher Spot Rates 

With the potential for fewer trucks available and delays, spot rates can be heightened during this time.  

Brake Safety Week Impact on Carriers 

Carriers are similarly affected, so there is the potential for delays and less freight volume. 

Transportation Delays 

Just like shippers, carriers should expect to see potential delays in the movement of traffic due to the increased inspections. This could disrupt your operations. 

Fewer Shipments Available 

Shippers may choose to plan around this week, reroute certain shipments, or even look into alternative modes. Less freight may be available during this week. 

How to Prepare for Brake Safety Week: 

Shippers 

Ensure Documentation Accuracy 

Double-check all shipment documentation. Ensure it is accurate and complete to avoid delays during any unexpected inspections. 

Communicate Sensitive Shipment Needs  

If you have any special requirements or time sensitivities, communicate this well in advance. This helps your logistics provider plan effectively. Any last-minute communication risks delays. 

Find Alternatives 

Consider alternative transportation modes or routes if you expect any delays. 

Keep Customers Aware 

Be proactive and communicate potential delays during this week to your customers to manage expectations. 

Share Any Concerns 

Discuss any concerns you might have with your logistics provider. They can offer valuable insights and help develop strategies to reduce disruptions. 

Pricing Awareness 

Be aware of possible higher spot rates during Brake Safety Week. When possible, plan shipments before or after this period to secure better pricing. 

Carriers 

Double-Check Credentials 

Ensure all required credentials, like operating authority, hazmat endorsements, TWIC cards, and any other relevant permits, are current and accessible. 

Driver Documents are Up to Date 

Have drivers verify that all paperwork is up to date and accessible in case of inspection. 

Vehicle Maintenance Check 

Double-check that all vehicles have undergone any necessary preventive maintenance and are in top operating condition to avoid delays due to roadside repairs. 

Prep Your Drivers 

Make sure drivers are aware of this week and the potential for stops or delays. Train drivers on what to expect and the inspection procedure. Share this CVSA inspection checklist or tips sheet to help them improve their own brake maintenance checks. Make sure they know the channels to communicate any disruptions to their journey. 

Book Ahead  

Shippers may choose to reroute shipments, choose alternative modes, or plan around this week. Consider booking shipments well in advance for this week. 

Remember – Safety First 

The importance of this week is not disruptions but brake safety. This is a great time to remind drivers of their role in proper vehicle checks and maintenance.  

Let’s Work Together to Keep Our Roads Safe 

We believe road safety is paramount. While Brake Safety Week might cause some temporary disruptions, it serves a vital purpose in keeping the importance of brake safety and its needed maintenance front of mind. 

By staying informed and taking proactive steps, you can likely see minimal effects of Brake Safety Week. 

For additional opportunities to stay ahead of disruption to your business during Brake Safety Week, consider working with Trinity Logistics. We have over 45 years of experience helping thousands of shipper and carrier companies conquer more complicated shipping situations, like CVSA inspection weeks. We’re confident in our ability to make this week (and all others) a painless one for your business. 

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GOOD NEWS, BUT…

Consumer spending is the biggest driver of the U.S. economy, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). One measurement of that consumer spending is the Redbook index, which compares year-over-year growth for large domestic general retailers (think Walmart, Amazon, Target). The index has averaged just over 3.5 percent for the past 20 years, so the recent year-over-year (YoY) growth in the four-plus percent range speaks to the strength of consumer spending (Figure 1.1). This index alone certainly gives reason for optimism, however there is a cautionary tale with regards to consumer debt.  

After years of next to zero interest rates to keep the economy on its legs, consumers have seen interest rates on the rise, with the federal funds rate at its highest level since the early 2000’s. With the increase in interest to borrow funds, combined with the increased costs of essentials (food, housing, energy), many households have turned to credit cards to fill the gap for funding of these necessities. Figure 1.2 from the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel shows the rise in consumer delinquency particularly in those groups that utilize more than half of their available credit line.  

While there appears to be relief on the horizon with the impending reduction in interest rates, it appears a portion of active consumers may be pulling back on purchases for those items that are not mission critical.  This, in turn, will have an impact on restocking of inventories and trucking activity.

While it is not approaching the levels seen in 2021, the volume index is quickly approaching levels seen in 2022. This has buoyed optimism in the industry.  

JUST SOME GOOD LUCK? TIME WILL TELL

The uptick in consumer spending, restocking of inventories and the threat of labor strife in the fourth quarter of this year has been to the benefit of those involved with the rail and import business.  

In Figure 2.1 below, the blue line represents loaded container rail volume in the U.S. and the past three months have seen the volume grow. Similarly, container volumes to the U.S. have been on the rise.  

The orange line represents container volume from China over the past six months. While some of that traditional volume is now flowing through other countries, like Mexico, there is still a great deal of activity with U.S.-China trade. Will this continue or is it fool’s gold? That is something we will continue to keep an eye on as a pullback in consumer spending will dictate how the needle moves.

STAYING RIGHT WHERE WE ARE

Finally, looking at domestic over-the-road volume (blue line) compared with carrier rejection rates (green line). The slight upward trend continues with volumes and rejection rates (Figure 3.1). Rejection rates continue to inch towards 2022 levels, but a five-to-six rejection rate is about half of what one would see in a balanced freight market.

This has yet to manifest itself in the way of increased freight rates, as capacity still exists in the market.Shippers and carriers should anticipate little change in conditions (although hurricane season is looming) until early 2025.

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UP AND TO THE RIGHT

For the past year, the general direction of the Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) has been on an upward trajectory as seen in Figure 1.1. 

While it is not approaching the levels seen in 2021, the volume index is quickly approaching levels seen in 2022. This has buoyed optimism in the industry.  

Another rise we’re keeping an eye on is the Outbound Tender Rejection Index, the rate at which carriers are saying “no” to freight where they have paper rates with a shipper. A six percent rejection rate may not sound important, but considering the rejection rate has stagnated in the three-to-four percent range for the past year plus, it’s another sign that the freight pendulum may be nearing more of a balanced market.  

In 2021, rejection rates hovered in the 20-30 percent range. This was more a product of increased freight volumes and carriers realizing they could get higher rates in the spot market versus the contracted rates they had in place. The uptick in rejection now appears to be more of a limit of capacity in certain markets versus carriers hedging their bets on the open load board.

Drip, Drip, Drip

Speaking of that capacity, there is a reduction happening, albeit a slow drip. As shown in Figure 1.2, for the past year and a half, almost two years, the biggest reduction in capacity has been from the owner-operator segment. Most likely, the carriers in this group that have exited the market are those that rushed in when freight and rates were plentiful, and now are finding more normalized rates combined with high overhead to be unsustainable.  

As shippers continue to look ahead, not having reliability among this segment of carriers could prove problematic as volumes escalate and more freight flows to the spot market, which is supported heavily by owner-operator drivers. This is a good reason for shippers to ensure they have a good mix of carrier and broker partners.

Baltimore Still Recovering

Finally, it has been just over three months since the bridge collapsed near Baltimore, MD. The waterways in the surrounding area appear to be returning to normal, and the need for traffic that populated the bridge to divert to alternate routes seems to be no worse for the wear on drivers.  

Looking at volume in that market in Figure 1.3 since the end of March when the event occurred, after a slight dip when freight had to be re-routed, volumes as measured by the OTVI have increased just over 10 percent. Certainly, there is still work to be done, short- and long-term, but the Baltimore area appears to have powered through an unfortunate event.

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Don’t let your company get caught off guard by CVSA Operation Safe Driver Week, July 7th to July 13th, 2024!

Shippers and carriers, mark your calendars! Operation Safe Driver Week is approaching. While this annual event is designed to make our roadways safer, it’s also a crucial week for those in logistics. This pivotal time can impact operational efficiency for shippers and carriers alike. To be prepared, it’s important for all those involved in shipping freight to understand what Operation Safe Driver Week entails and its effect on the freight market.

• What is the CVSA?
• What is Operation Safe Driver Week?
• Impact on Shippers
• Impact on Carriers
• How Shippers Can Prepare 
• How Carriers Can Prepare 
• Let’s Work Together

What is the CVSA? What is Operation Safe Driver Week?

The Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance (CVSA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to improving commercial motor vehicle safety through collaboration between law enforcement, industry stakeholders, and the public sector. In partnership with the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), the CVSA launched the Operation Safe Driver initiative in 2007. The goal of this initiative is to reduce the number of deaths and injuries from crashes involving large trucks, buses, and cars.

This initiative includes an annual event, Operation Safe Driver Week. It aims to improve driver behavior through education and increased enforcement efforts, focusing on unsafe driving behaviors. It takes place across North America, so the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Unlike the CVSA’s other two initiatives (International Road Check and Brake Safety Week), which solely focus on commercial drivers, this event affects all drivers on the road.

Each year has a primary focus with this year’s being reckless, careless, or dangerous driving. This includes actions like: 

• Speeding
• Texting while driving
• Drunk or drugged driving
• Following too closely
• Driving too aggressively
• Improper lane changes
• Failure to obey traffic control devices
• Failing to use a seat belt

Those drivers identified are pulled over by law enforcement and issued warnings or citations.

According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Association (NHTSA), drivers’ actions are the reason behind 94 percent of all traffic crashes. Research from the University of Missouri-Columbia has shown that interactions with law enforcement, not just education, are what brings change. During last year’s event, law enforcement interacted with 66,421 drivers! Drivers were informed and educated on how they can improve their driving behavior and do their part in reducing crashes.  

Why Should I Be Concerned About Operation Safe Driver Week?

It’s important to be aware of when Operation Safe Driver Week takes place because of the impact it has on shipping freight. Even though it’s just one week out of the year, no one likes to be unprepared for potential disruption or delays to their business.

Operation Safe Driver Week Impact on Shippers

Shippers may face potential delays, see reduced transportation capacity, and likely higher spot rates.

Potential Delays

Increased enforcement activity can lead to potential delays due to any road stop inspections or pullovers.

Reduced Transportation Capacity

The increased enforcement effort sometimes leads carriers to strategically choose to close their business temporarily for the week to avoid any risk of fines or penalties. You might find it more difficult to secure reliable carriers for any last-minute shipments.

Higher Spot Rates

With the potential for fewer trucks available and delays, spot rates can be heightened during this time.

Operation Safe Driver Week Impact on Carriers

Carriers are similarly affected, and there is the potential for delays, less freight volume, and higher scrutiny from law enforcement.

Transportation Delays

Just like shippers, carriers should expect to see potential delays in the movement of traffic due to the increased enforcement. This could disrupt your operations.

Fewer Shipments Available

Shippers may choose to plan around this week, reroute certain shipments, or even look into alternative modes. Less freight may be available during this week.

Increased Law Enforcement

Expect to see increased law enforcement, so more eyes will be looking for unsafe driver behavior, and drivers may receive fines.

How to Prepare for Operation Safe Driver Week:

Shippers

Ensure Documentation Accuracy

Double-check all shipment documentation. Ensure it is accurate and complete to avoid delays during any unexpected inspections.

Communicate Sensitive Shipment Needs 

If you have any special requirements or time sensitivities, communicate this well in advance. This helps your logistics provider plan effectively. Any last-minute communication risks delays.

Find Alternatives

Consider alternative transportation modes or routes if you expect any delays.

Keep Customers Aware

Be proactive and communicate potential delays during this week to your customers to manage expectations.

Share Any Concerns

Discuss any concerns you might have with your logistics provider. They can offer valuable insights and help develop strategies to reduce disruptions.

Pricing Awareness

Be aware of possible higher spot rates during Operation Safe Driver Week. When possible, plan shipments before or after this period to secure better pricing.

Carriers

Double-Check Credentials

Ensure all company credentials, like operating authority, hazmat endorsements, TWIC cards, and any other relevant permits, are current and accessible.

Driver Documents are Up to Date

Have drivers verify that all paperwork is up to date and accessible in case of inspection.

Vehicle Maintenance Check

Double-check that all vehicles have undergone any necessary preventive maintenance and are in top operating condition to avoid delays due to roadside repairs.

Prep Your Drivers

Make sure drivers are aware of this week and the potential for stops or delays. Train drivers on proper procedures for interacting with law enforcement. Make sure they know the channels to communicate any disruptions to their journey.

Book Ahead 

Shippers may choose to reroute shipments, choose alternative modes, or plan around this week. Consider booking shipments well in advance for this week.

Remember – Safety First

The importance of this week is not disruptions but road safety. This is a great time to talk with drivers about safe driving behavior. You could also help educate the public on proper driving behavior when interacting with trucks. Remember, this week benefits everyone who shares the road.

Let’s Work Together to Keep Our Roads Safe

We believe road safety is paramount. While Operation Safe Driver Week might cause some temporary disruptions, it serves a vital purpose in promoting safe driving behaviors.

By staying informed and taking proactive steps, you can likely see minimal effects of Operation Safe Driver Week.

For additional opportunities to stay ahead of disruption to your business during Operation Safe Driver Week, consider working with Trinity Logistics. We have over 45 years of experience helping thousands of shipper and carrier companies conquer more complicated shipping situations, like CVSA inspection weeks. We’re confident in our ability to make this week (and all others) a painless one for your business.

Stay up to date on the latest information on conditions impacting the freight market, curated by Trinity Logistics through our Freightwaves Sonar subscription.

A LOOK AT THE PAST AND FUTURE OF THE FREIGHT MARKET

The Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) measures the volume of contracted freight in the U.S. While this does not account for the spot market, ebbs and flows in contract freight have a direct impact on spot market volume and pricing. The outlier on the graph below (Figure 1.1) is the yellow line, representing calendar year 2021. This was an unprecedented year for freight volume, primarily influenced by consumer spending. While many feel the freight market is suppressed, that is not necessarily the case. 2024 will follow a more traditional freight flow pattern, with volumes up five to eight percent, year-over-year (YoY).

Measuring the freight volume is not enough to predict swings in pricing. Being able to overlay the frequency in which carriers say “no” to freight tenders via the Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI) gives a good picture whether the capacity side of the market can handle those swings.

The below chart (Figure 2.1) looks at the amount of contracted freight volume (blue line) with the frequency of tender rejections (green line) overlayed. As can see, most of 2019 and the first part of 2020 saw a market where freight volumes were easily handled. This was a result of lower than anticipated freight volumes versus a glut of carriers in the market.

Then March 2020 happened. Everything went on lockdown. Volumes and rejection rates plummeted. That was quickly followed by a freight injection and for the latter part of 2020, and all of 2021, the market struggled with a lack of capacity to handle the record freight volumes.

For example, most LTL carriers were operating at 105-107 percent of capacity when they normally are in the low to mid-90s range. The freight market pendulum was in favor of the carriers. When the market gets hot, everyone wants in, which is what was happening in 2021, and 2022 – new carriers raced to get in on the action while existing carriers looked to soak up as much rolling stock as they could to capitalize on the market.

2023 saw a return to more traditional levels, but the capacity remained. As a result, rejection rates for freight tenders took a dive to below five percent, indicating carriers were eager for any freight that kept their fleets moving. This caused freight rates to take a dive (Figure 3.1) and then stabilize as of late.

But how long will shippers be able to rely on rate stability? Most likely the best determination will be the pace at which carriers exit the market.

Figure 4.1 clearly shows capacity has been coming out of the market (blue line) for the past year. Most of that capacity is small – micro-fleets and owner operators. Certainly, this is dwindling capacity, but not to the extent of a large carrier pulling out of the market. A slow drip for sure.

The orange line represents the OTVI (volume) in the market, and that has slowly climbed over the last 12 months with the normal seasonal up and downs. At some point, as the volume inches up and capacity comes down, it’s simple supply and demand. Many are pointing to the end of this year, more likely spring of 2025 when that balance starts to shift. Now is the time for shippers to learn the contingency plans that are in place with their carrier and broker providers to account for this. 

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Stay up to date on the latest information on conditions impacting the freight market, curated by Trinity Logistics through our Freightwaves Sonar subscription.

FREIGHT VOLUMES ARE ACTUALLY UP

It seems much of the news clippings have been around freight rates and how they remain suppressed. One could jump to the conclusion that this is a result of freight volumes being down. On the contrary, freight volumes are elevated from what we saw in 2023. 

As you can see in Figure 1.1, volumes for the majority of 2024 are between six to eight percent higher compared to 2023. What is driving (or not driving) rates remains the capacity in the market. 

Capacity is showing a net decline, albeit slower than expected. Much of that reduction is being felt in the less-than-10 tractor-fleets, so while the number of for-hire carriers is declining, the impact to actual trucks to haul freight is a slow drip.

That capacity continues to hold tender rejection rates at extremely low levels, meaning few loads are hitting the spot market. As a result, spot rates remain almost $0.70 per mile less than contracted rates. There has been some closing of the gap over the past year, as shown in Figure 1.2, but look for the gap to remain relatively consistent for the remainder of the year.

The Aftermath of The Francis Scott Key Bridge Collapse

It has been about six weeks since the bridge collapse in Baltimore. Removal efforts continue and certainly, a return to normal traffic flow is years away.  

In positive news, looking at the *headhaul index for that market (Figure 1.3), aside from the drop around the time of the collapse, things appear to be back to normal from a balance standpoint. Certainly, there are more out-of-route miles and freight that may be entering at nearby ports, but for the most part, outbound and inbound freight volumes appear to be back to normal for the Baltimore market.

*headhaul measures the variance in outbound versus inbound freight

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