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2023 Crystal Ball

It’s usually this time of year when predictions for the upcoming year start to make headlines. It’s safe to say that most folks could make some predictions based on what has transpired recently, so I wanted to highlight a few of those as we kick off the new year.

The gap between spot and contract rates will stabilize.  

Now, this does not mean that they will be equal – that rarely happens. Just about a month ago, the spread was quickly approaching $1.00 per mile between contract and spot rates (with contract being higher). That gap is slowly starting to shrink (Figure 1.1). Some of that is due to spot rates seeing a holiday bump, and part of that is related to new contract rates taking hold. With many carriers taking an extended break from the road since mid-December, less capacity has pushed spot rates higher. This upward trend will be short-lived and expect rates below $2.00 per mile to become the norm as we chug through winter and into early spring. Contract rates will also trend downward, finding a floor most likely in the middle part of the year.

Few sectors will see bright spots in 2023.  

I don’t think anyone thought the economy could continue to chug along at its rapid pace seen in the latter half of 2020 and through most of 2021.  Even though 2022’s growth was not as robust as the prior year, the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) should seek out a modest two percent growth rate. However, where that growth occurred sets the stage for this year.  

2022 saw a return of spending on services versus goods. So, while things like healthcare are important to the overall economy, from a freight standpoint, service spending has much less impact on transportation. Expect auto sales, both new and used, to continue their strong run. As parts and inventory issues continue to be resolved, vehicles with temporary tags will be more commonplace as Americans continue to purchase cars and trucks.  

On the opposite end, most notably, the housing market will have a rough 2023. With Americans seeing inflation compete for more of their take-home dollars, and the cost of borrowing increasing, many will choose to remain in their current situation. And it’s not just the building materials that will see less of a demand. With fewer new homes comes less demand for things that go in those homes – like appliances, carpets, and furniture.

Following the building industry, manufacturing will be the next downstream effect, and banking will also see less demand for consumer and business loans. Overall, expect 2023 to see, at best, no year-over-year (YoY) growth in GDP, with 2024 being a rebound year (Figure 2.1)

Import activity will continue to slow. 

As we saw in last month’s update, Figure 3.1 shows the impact of the ship backlog being resolved and container movement starting to slow. That will be a common theme this year. While 2022 saw year-over-year import activity down almost 20 percent, that downward YoY story will continue in 2023. This will have an immediate impact on intermodal activity, but also over-the-road and less-than-truckload volumes will feel the impact.

One thing to keep in mind as we see recent actual and forecasted numbers showing negative, that is against a backdrop of a very successful 2021 and modest growth year in 2022. So while 2023 will not continue that positive trend, by comparison to a recent down year like 2019, 2023 will be up from an overall volume standpoint versus just a few years ago.

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Stay up to date on the latest information on conditions impacting the freight market, curated by Trinity Logistics through our Freightwaves Sonar subscription.

As we near the end of 2022 and the start of 2023, let’s look at three things in relation to the freight market: freight volumes, the rates, and what’s happening in the maritime segment. 

SLOWING FREIGHT VOLUMES

In Figure 1.1, you can see the contracted outbound tender volume index over the past four years. The yellow line on the top represents 2021, the blue line represents 2022. 

Since about the end of the first quarter of this year, we started seeing those volumes pacing around the same way as last year, but then all of the sudden they started to take a nosedive. Contract volumes are down around 15 percent below 2021 levels. What that means is we’re seeing less volume trickling to the spot market and this trend will certainly continue as we go into 2023.

FALLING RATES

Speaking of rates, in figure 2.1, you’ll see the top green line represents the average van rate for contracted freight. The blue line is vans for the spot market. 

As you can see, just like with freight volumes, they were running neck and neck until about March, and then there was a discrepancy. We’re seeing this on the rates side as well. Typically, the difference between contracted and spot rates is maybe 10 or 15 cents per mile. The fact that right now it’s about 70 to 80 cents a mile, we’ve never seen it at that high of a discrepancy.  We do feel that as we get into the bidding season, new contracted rates will start to kick in, so we do anticipate that the green line will trend down.  I’m not sure how much the blue line, the spot line, can continue to go, as it’s currently sitting at just below $2.00/mile. We may soon reach a point where carriers are not profitable on spot rates. 

FINDING MARITIME BALANCE

On the maritime side of things, in figure 3.1, the green line shows the number of actual containers that are clearing customs. They are coming off the ships, being unloaded, and clearing customs to be distributed via warehouses, intermodal, truckload, and what have you. The blue line shows the number of actual import bookings that have happened. 

You may say to yourself, that doesn’t make sense. If somebody is booking freight and that number is going down, how come we are still clearing these containers? Remember, throughout much of 2021 and even 2020, there was a backlog of ships, particularly on the West Coast, waiting to get unloaded. So, while the flow of ships is not coming into the ports as greatly as it was, it just kind of shows you how big of a backlog there was, that it’s taken six months and we’re still not through this backlog of ships, both on the West and East Coast.

Overall import volume is down 20 percent year over year. Yet, East Coast and Gulf ports are up as shippers moved their freight to the East Coast when the West Coast was originally facing backlog delays. 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Low, single-digit rejection rates on contracted freight mean less is hitting the spot market, by some accounts 30 percent less than last year. 

Carriers need, and we need carriers, to remain solvent. Be diligent in negotiations with carriers but understand that we are very close to the floor for when a carrier becomes unprofitable.

Less freight is coming through the ports. Short-term will trigger an over-supply situation, particularly on ports with declining YoY volumes like Los Angeles and Long Beach. Other ports like Savannah, Houston, New York, and New Jersey will see more capacity balance.

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