How are fuel prices affecting truckload rates in the April 2026 Freight Market Update?

The update shows all-in truckload rates above $3.00 per mile, while linehaul rates excluding fuel are around $2.21 per mile. That roughly $0.87 per mile gap reflects the impact of elevated diesel costs.

What does the April 2026 Freight Market Update say about spot market shipping costs?

Shippers relying on the spot market are seeing an added cost of about $300 to $350 on an average 700-mile shipment because of higher fuel prices.

Why are flatbed tender rejections so high?

Flatbed tender rejections are just shy of 40%, driven less by housing activity and more by demand tied to the energy sector and new data center construction, which requires large volumes of copper, steel, and concrete.

What is contributing to tighter freight capacity?

The update points to a continued decline in carrier participation, rising freight volumes, and the potential impact of policy changes such as Delilah's Law, all of which could make capacity tighter over time.

How much of the driver population could leave the market?

At the most extreme end, the article notes that up to 15% of the current driver population could be taken off the road over the next 12 months, further tightening capacity.

04/17/2026 by Greg Massey

April 2026 Freight Market Update

Get the latest insights shaping the logistics industry with Trinity’s April 2026 Freight Market Update, powered by our Freightwaves Sonar subscription.

FUELING THE FIRE

It certainly feels like we must start the market update with the impact fuel is having on rates.

Figure 1.1 looks at the average rate for a truck (blue line) being above $3.00 per mile. The white line is less fuel, currently $2.21 per mile. The $0.87 variance is the impact of fuel being, on average, at $5.86 per mile. Keep in mind that is the average, with the lowest cost per diesel in the Midwest at $5.30 per gallon compared to the other extreme being California at $7.56 per gallon.

For many shippers, having a fuel surcharge table in place accounts for the ebbs and flows of fuel prices. For shippers that rely primarily on spot rates, that increase has accounted for an additional $300-$350 for an average 700-mile shipment.

Unfortunately, with the continuing Iran conflict, shippers need to budget for this cost increase for the foreseeable future. Even if the conflict is resolved today, fuel prices will remain high. While we would see oil prices stabilize almost overnight, the same would not be the case for oil refineries and ultimately the price at the pump. That’s because the refineries would still be processing higher-cost crude that they have already purchased and thus looking to get the return on their investment at $100+ per barrel.

Relief at the pump could happen as soon as a few weeks, but most likely it will take a month for that reduced cost of oil to show up in gas and diesel prices.

April 2026 Freight Market Update figure 1.1 shows a line with the SONAR National Truckload Index over time, with total rates above $3.00 per mile and linehaul rates around $2.21 per mile, highlighting the growing impact of fuel costs on overall pricing. — *Figure 1.1*

THE ENERGY SECTOR SURGE

The flatbed sector continues to lead the way with regard to rejection of freight tenders.

Figure 2.1 shows the rejection index just shy of 40%. While this is encouraging, especially considering rejections are typically not high in the first quarter of the year, the underlying reason for the rejections may not be sustainable.

First, it’s not being driven by the housing market. A depressed housing market was clearly reflected by the low rejection rate seen through much of 2025.

Rather, what seems to be the underlying driver is the energy sector, particularly the new data center builds. Many people think of semiconductor chips when they hear data centers. It takes a lot of copper, steel, and concrete to build these facilities. Flatbeds are the primary resource for delivery of these goods.

April 2026 Freight Market Update figure 2.1 shows a line chart of the SONAR Flatbed Truckload Index showing rejection rates climbing to nearly 40%, indicating tightening flatbed capacity driven by strong demand. — *Figure 2.1*

DRIVER DOWNSHIFT

Lastly, the slow exodus of carriers continues as indicated in Figure 3.1.

This worry for shippers has been further fueled by the uptick in volumes as shown by the white line below, and this is an environment where produce is not in full swing.

There are several initiatives around the quality of drivers on the road, and the forward movement of Delilah’s Law in Congress will make a tight-capacity situation even tighter. At its most extreme impact, we could realize a world where 15% of the current driver population is taken off the road. This won’t be an overnight impact, but as this would be a law versus a mandate, 12 months to see this impact is very realistic.

Shippers will need to revisit their freight playbook to ensure goods are leaving their docks in a timely and safe manner.

April 2026 Freight Market Update figure 3.1 shows a line chart displaying a declining number of authorized for-hire carriers alongside rising freight volumes, signaling tightening capacity and ongoing carrier exits from the market. — *Figure 3.1*

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