Get the latest insights shaping the logistics industry with Trinity’s February 2026 Freight Market Update, powered by our Freightwaves Sonar subscription.

last year’s playbook doesn’t work anymore

What a difference a year makes! This time last year, carriers were saying “yes” on almost every load tender that came their way. Fast forward 12 months, and tender rejection rates are 2-3x what they were at the start of 2025.  

Figure 1.1 shows the breakdown by van (yellow), reefer (blue) and flatbed (white). 

The recent weather certainly has been a secondary catalyst to an already escalating rejection trend seen from carriers towards the end of last year. As a result, it has (Figure 1.2) pushed spot rates 20% higher year-over-year, even as volume has remained stagnant. 

carriers are keeping their options open

With spot rates on the rise, the delta compared to contract rates has become almost nil (Figure 2.1).  

Contract carriers may be constrained by lack of capacity versus several months ago in certain areas, however it’s also plausible that carriers (and typically those that don’t have a minimum acceptance threshold on contracted freight) are very capable of providing the needed capacity, but simply hedging their bets on a better paying, similar lane on the spot market.  

Shippers are no doubt having to reach further down their list of carriers and even forcing more freight to the spot market.

carriers are keeping their options open

While Figure 3.1 below, which shows the inbound container volume to the U.S., could give reason for optimism when you compare the current year (blue) to past years, it’s a bit of fool’s gold for continuing the ascent.  

This year, the Chinese New Year (also known as the Lunar New Year) will occur between February 17^th and March 3^rd. Prior years have seen the New Year begin in late January or early February. U.S. inventories have declined over the past year, and tariff or no tariff, shippers will have no choice to restock in the face of consumer demand.  

It’s anticipated that imports will follow a traditional seasonal pattern sans the later than normal decline that always happens around the Chinese New Year. 

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Let The 2026 Freight Games Begin

Well, there certainly has been a shift in the freight market just in the last 30 days. One of the best canaries in the cave for market health is the rejection index – the rate at which contracted carriers are saying “no thanks” to tendered freight tendered. 

For a good two years, five percent was the norm, meaning shippers didn’t have to go too far down the routing guide to find a willing participant. Slowly, over the course of the last six months, that rate has been edging up.

Then in December, the ascent got more rapid, with the rejection rate touching, and eclipsing, the 10 percent mark (Figure 1.1). While the rejection rate at the end of last year was about 20 percent higher than 2024, the same could not be said about the volume side of the equation, with December 2024 being a better volume month than this past December.  

So that can really point to one thing – less capacity. Sure, some of that is the time of year, as drivers tend to extend the holidays. But one can not discount the impact – either real or perceived – of less drivers due to regulation enforcement (Figure 1.2).  

January and February are typically lighter volume months, so the impact may not be as pronounced. However, when we hit March, and certainly April, if capacity continues the downward trend as we anticipate, expect rates to increase on the carrier side and compliance with routing guides to suffer. 

The Tariff Coin Flip

Recently, Craig Fuller, CEO at Freightwaves and Sonar, gave really good insight into the current inventory situation of retailers and the pending impact of a ruling on the IEEPA tariffs.  

As you may recall, these were the tariffs put in place as an emergency measure last year. As you would expect, many importers are and have been anxiously waiting on a ruling by the Supreme Court – one way or the other – to provide clarity for their business operations.  

As you can see from Figure 2.1, inventory levels have steadily declined over the past few years as excesses have bled off, and that has been followed in lock step with inbound ocean volumes. Depending on the ruling, most likely one of two things will happen.  

If the tariffs are rescinded, shippers will look to capitalize on a window to bring in freight and not be subject to the higher tariffs. Now, there are ways for the administration to re-enact these tariffs, but that process could take three to six months.  

If the opposite holds true, and the tariffs are affirmed, at least it gives clarity to shippers, and they will look to restock depleted inventories. Reading my crystal ball, if the tariffs are rescinded, and we have a surge in import volume – at the same time we have the capacity side decreasing – we could be in for a perfect storm with regards to freight rates. 

With all the craziness that has happened recently, and is potentially on the horizon, even though freight volumes may not feel like it, now is the time for shippers to cozy up to their carrier and broker partners to ensure their products get in front of the consumers before the competition. Let the games begin! 

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Stockings Full of Slow Shifts in the Freight Market

Despite ongoing demand softness, the next six to 12 months point to a market driven not by shippers, but by significant changes on the carrier side. 

There has been much in the news around driver competency, whether it’s the English Language Proficiency (ELP), non-domiciled CDL’s, or the shutdown of sub-par driver training facilities. This has caused pockets of capacity shortages in the market, be it on a lane or market perspective. 

Many have asked how much these initiatives impact capacity. It’s certainly a slow drip, but Figure 1.1 shows that indeed drivers are being placed out of service for violations in proficiency with the English language as it pertains to reading and understanding road signs. 

Why the blue line (total ELP violations) does not track 100 percent with the white line (driver being taken out of service because of a violation), unfortunately I don’t have the answer.

There’s also been a crackdown on the legitimacy of providers for electronic logging devices (ELD). The shift from allowing providers to self-certify to a process that verifies the ELD works as intended, will not necessarily take drivers off the road, but it will right-size the miles driven.  

By some, it is anticipated that drivers using a device that allows for manipulation of driving and down-time, will see their time behind the wheel cut in half. While most likely not as impactful as regulations targeted at the driver’s ability, it will contribute to the declining capacity.

Reefer Rejections Take Top Spot

The decline in capacity will show up in the tender rejection index, the rate at which carriers say “No” to shipments tendered to them.

Rejection of refrigerated shipments (white line, Figure 2.1) continue to lead the way, just over 14 percent. Flatbed rejections come next, with a rate of just under 13 percent (yellow line). And van shipments (blue line) are being rejected, just under seven percent.  

Keep in mind that while flatbed and reefer shipments are relatively high, van freight still claims the top spot for volume in the U.S.

Shippers need to be plugged into the ebb and flow of the rejection rates, as this will show itself in the spot market.

Imports Hit Snooze

Finally, ocean imports continue to lag volumes seen over the past few years (Figure 3.1). A slight bump in the coming weeks is likely, but retailers particularly continue to burn down inventories that bulged in the middle of this year.  

Most likely we will not see a surge in import activity until late February, early March.

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Cooling Temps & Tightening Capacity

It is getting closer to that time of the season. No, we’re not talking about turkeys and the little jolly man in the red suit; we’re talking about carriers uttering the “NO” word more often.

Typically, we see rejections elevate towards the end of the calendar year, and this year the trend is continuing. 

Figure 1.1 shows the steady climb up and to the right for the overall rejection rate (blue line), but what is a bigger driver of that overall rate is the rejection seen with reefer shipments (gray line). Rejections of reefer shipments currently sit just above 15 percent. Conversely, rejection rates with van shipments (green line) have held relatively steady, hovering just above five percent. 

Shippers should be prepared for rejection rates on refrigerated shipments to climb even higher as end of the year demand for temperature-controlled products (we all love our shrimp trays this time of year) and colder weather necessitating protection from freezing will help to elevate volumes against a backdrop of, at best, steady capacity.

Haul Length Tell the Story

Also interesting is the length of haul for reefer versus van shipments.  

As 2.1 illustrates, refrigerated shipments have seen the miles traveled increase by almost 40 miles compared to a month ago, while van shipments continue to get shorter, some 50 miles less than where they trended in the first quarter of this year.  

Typically, van trailers are used for retail and consumer goods, as well as finished goods transportation.

Well, there’s no doubt the American consumer continues to support the retail and consumer goods side. However, this benefits more of the shorter-type freight moves versus longer haul (think anything 800 miles or more) as companies like Amazon, Target, Walmart, etc. have strategically placed their distribution centers to be within one-day transit of almost the entire U.S.  

We have consistently seen the manufacturing, housing, and industry struggle in 2025.

These verticals support more of that over-the-road, multi-day transit freight. It’s no surprise that shipments of this length are down 25 percent versus a year ago. Carriers typically migrate toward shipments that keep them on the road for several days versus a new shipper and/or receiver each day, making long-haul shipments an advantageous carrot to dangle especially with spot shipments.

Bid Season Buzz

Lastly, bid season is upon us.

In anticipation of rates inching higher in 2026, shippers have hit “send” on those emails requesting pricing for the next six to 12 months.  

Currently, the spread of spot versus contract pricing has hovered in the $0.50”ish” per mile (Figure 3.1).

With capacity expected to further dwindle due to rising costs for operating and regulatory constraints, along with the barrier of entry into the carrier market being more challenging, a more balanced supply and demand will boost rates on the spot market. 

Many, from carriers to shippers to brokers, will be carefully consulting their crystal ball over the next few months. 

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Capacity Could Face Its Next Test

I am not sure if the right amount of attention was paid to the recent announcement by Secretary Duffy at the end of last month around non-domiciled CDL’s. It’s anticipated that this will have a larger impact on the owner-operator and small fleet community, more than the larger fleets. Non-domiciled CDL drivers tend to sustain on a lower-than-average cost of living, making it palatable for carriers to accept at or below-market pricing for hauling shipments. This has the potential to push rejection rates and carrier rates higher as we close out 2025 and head into 2026, as it’s anticipated that over 100,000 drivers could be impacted.  

While the impact of current drivers will not be immediately felt, since there is a two-year grace period, it will certainly restrict any new drivers looking to enter the over-the-road market. One of the best measurements of this will be seen in the tender rejection rate and national truckload rate index as seen in Figure 1.1. A driver loss of this size will certainly bring the use of autonomous trucks back into the conversation.

No Holiday Bump in Sight

For those keeping an eye on inbound ocean volumes, don’t expect a surge any time soon, certainly not before the close of 2025. Import volumes continue to trend below the last few years (Figure 2.1), and the flatline will likely dip slightly in the next several weeks before steadying as we head into 2026. Even a push in holiday consumer spending is not likely to dent depressed volumes at our major U.S. ports.

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SLUGGISH IS THE STATUS QUO IN FREIGHT

Stagnation continues to plague the over-the-road freight market. After a promising start to 2025, with freight volumes showing growth compared to last year, the trend has been ho-hum for the past six month, with the last few showing volumes below ’23 and ’24 volumes (Figure 1.1).  

Slowing import activity over the past two months has certainly contributed, with import volumes descending whereas the past few years has seen moderate growth during the summer months. One could point to ocean shipments from China being a big reason for the decline, with import volume down 19 percent year-over-year (YoY).  

Additionally, a decline in YoY housing starts (Figure 1.2) is also a contributor. While many think of the initial over-the-road volume created when a house in built, just as important is the secondary volume that comes with new home owners purchasing furniture, appliances, and housing accessories to fill their beautiful new abode. On average, each new home built contributes seven truckloads of freight.

STEADY RATES TO CONTINUE

The stagnation in freight has kept tender rejections low in 2025, trending in the five to 6 percent range recently (Figure 2.1). The lack of freight volume combined with carriers saying “yes” to freight tendered their way the majority of the time has leveled carrier rates over the last several months, hovering between $1.70 and $1.80 per mile. Based on historical trends, expect the steady rates to continue as we close out the year.

And while there are carriers exiting the market, there are also new carrier authorities entering (Figure 3.1). It will be interesting to see the impact on the mandate from the government enforcing the English language proficiency, particularly will the threat of losing federal funding be enough to prompt states lack in enforcement to start pulling drivers off the roads that fail. Loss of capacity is most likely the driver in significant movement for carrier rates.

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From Peak to Plummet

Last month, we talked about the rise in import volumes and speculated on the impact of new tariffs or expiring pauses on current tariffs. Unfortunately, that came true in July, with import volumes dropping sharply as indicated in Figure 1.1. While import volumes have been up year-over-year for the first half of 2025, projections based on tariff impacts forecast a much lower second half.

Overall, the U.S. is forecasting an almost six percent reduction compared to last year. Yes, lower product demand attributed to rising costs is one driver of the YoY decline. But you may remember the tail end of 2024 saw a surge in import volumes due to the lack of certainty around labor issues at the East and Gulf coast ports, making the comps for the latter part of 2025 much more challenging. 

With 136 days until Christmas, and based on anticipated cancelled and blank sailings, it may be wise to bundle your Christmas and Back-to-School shopping all in one.

PLENTY OF DRIVERS, BUT NOt DRIVING UP RATES

Overall carrier capacity continues to be fruitful, with August seeing a spike in net operating authorities as evidenced by Figure 2.1. This has driven down what was an escalating tender rejection rate over the last two months, with carriers saying “yes” to freight tendered their way almost 95 percent of the time.  

With no reason to expect a surge in freight demand over the remainder of the calendar year, rejection rates remaining low will continue to keep carrier rates stagnant. 60 days ago, spot rates for carriers sat at $2.27. Today, that number is $2.28. 

In general, the over-the-road freight market can be described like my golf game, “eehhhh”.

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A TICKING TRADE CLOCK

Import volumes continue to rise, but for how long? Since the 90-day truce with China in early May, U.S. ports have continued to see volumes that rival and surpass those seen over the past few years (Figure 1.1).  

While Chinese imports are a big driver of those volumes, they are not the only country feeding freight through our borders. A year-over-year (YoY) increase of four percent in shipment volume from China is nothing to sneeze at, but countries like Vietnam (52 percent YoY increase), Thailand (51 percent), and India (43 percent) have become more pronounced in their shipment volumes destined for the U.S.  

With the 90-day pause now being extended until August 1^st, it’s anticipated that volumes will remain elevated, but if tariffs are re-instituted, expect to see blank sailings and less volume coming through our ports, particularly the West Coast.

NOT YOUR AVERAGE SUMMER SLOWDOWN

While import volumes continue to surge, that volume is not translating to over-the-road shipments for the trucking industry.  

As Figure 2.1 shows, the outbound volume index has remained relatively flat with the normal peaks and valleys for holiday periods. One area we are closely watching is the movement in the tender rejection index, the rate at which carriers are saying “No thank you” to shipments being tendered to them.  

During the latter part of June and early July, rejections trended upward, cresting the eight percent mark. While that has seen a dip in the past few days, as have volumes, it’s anticipated to rebound to those levels in the coming weeks. 

As most Americans tend to do, truck drivers also take advantage of the summer months for vacation time.  Combined with the continuing trend of carriers leaving the market, and the still-to-be-determined impact of the English Language Proficiency mandate and enforcement, even if freight volumes are stagnant, less drivers to haul those shipments will cause rejections, and most likely rates, to rise.

REJECTION TRENDS BY EQUIPMENT

And speaking of tender rejections, not all rejections are created equally. There are many factors that influence a shipment being rejected by a carrier, one of which is the equipment required.  

As Figure 3.1 shows, the rejection rate for shipments requiring a van (blue line) have been relatively flat. Flatbed (white line) capacity was a struggle in the spring months, but while still relatively high, at 15 percent, much less than what was experienced a few months ago.  

Reefers continue to slowly trend upward, and produce seasonality has an influence this time of year, with one out of every nine shipments seeing the carrier reject the shipment opportunity. 

Understanding what the trends are by equipment type will help as you are working on spot versus contract priced shipments.

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Exit Stage Left

The slow but consistent exit of carriers from the freight market continues.

Figure 1.1 shows a theme of negative net authorities in the for-hire carrier market thus far in 2025. This continues the trend from last year, when there were 13,000 fewer carriers in the market at the end of the year versus compared to the start, an almost four percent decrease. Operating costs, tariff-related increases in equipment and parts, and a stricter mandate on driver proficiency in English will continue to negatively impact the number of drivers and carriers in the market.  

Where this impact will be most pronounced is the tender rejection rate, the frequency in which carriers say “no thank you” to a shipment offered to them. I don’t foresee the rejection rates we experienced in the latter part of ’20 and all of ’21, which were in the 20-30 percent range, happening. However, we are quickly approaching double-digit rejection rates which would signal a more balanced supply and demand freight market. 

Shippers have been working with the luxury of not having to reach too far into their routing guides and carrier and broker partners. As the recent trends continue, freight acceptance compliance will become more challenging for them.

West Coast Ports Heat Up Again

The one thing that is somewhat unpredictable right now is import volumes and their impact on the freight market.  

Figure 2.1 shows the slowdown of freight from overseas, most of which affected our West Coast ports. Once a handshake deal was in place to stave off steep tariffs with China, ships pulled up their anchors and chugged across the waters destined for the U.S. 

Import volumes have recently surpassed 2023 levels and are soon to close in on 2024 volumes. Most of this freight will be more of a “just in case” scenario versus “just in time”. This will see a greater benefit to the rail industry versus truckload market, as freight that is not time sensitive has the luxury of taking longer to arrive at its destination at a lower cost.  

Expect to see some volatility in truckload pricing in and around the LA/LB ports as capacity and freight volume imbalances collide. 

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Freight in Retreat

A picture is worth a thousand words.  

Figure 1.1 shows the initial impacts of the tariffs with regard to ocean containers and over-the-road trucking volumes. As you see by the yellow line, shippers were eager to get ahead of the pending tariffs with freight from China. But as the tit for tat trade war has continued, blank sailings and cancelled bookings are becoming common and has caused inbound container volume to trend downward, now sitting almost 20 percent less than this time last year. 

This has translated into a regression in the over-the-road trucking volume, with the blue line starting to show a decline at time of year when freight volumes should be escalating with increased consumer activity and the start of produce season. Additionally, the lack of container volume has an impact on rail activity with total intermodal container volume receding five percent from where it was in March.

Carriers Struggle with Freight Shift

The rejection of freight tenders (OTRI.USA) has been relatively unchanged over the past month plus. This has been held up by a declining base of carriers. However, if you look at Figure 2.1 you will see via the red line that the average length of haul for shipments has been on a steady decline pretty much for the past year.  

Yes, less import traffic plays into that, as those shipments typically head to larger metro areas (Chicago, Dallas) once they cross into our borders at the port. But a push for regionalization by shippers and an increase in e-commerce activity has also fueled more frequent but shorter distances for freight to travel, down about 12 percent from this time in 2024.  

This is not great news for carriers as 75 miles less equates to a lower price they can command, but the mileage difference is not enough to allow them to compensate for the difference by additional freight moves during their work week.

Tariffs Price Out Small Carriers

The length and severity of the tariffs is not only having an immediate impact on trucking volumes, but it could be setting the industry up for a capacity shortage once calmer waters prevail. 25 percent tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports have increased the cost of new trucks by almost $30,000, making it particularly challenging for smaller carriers to invest in new equipment, let alone new entrants to enter the carrier capacity market.  

And for those looking to stretch the mileage out of older equipment, the increased cost for maintenance parts and fuel additives as a result of tariffs puts further strain on already tight budgets. Considering 93 percent of the for-hire carriers in the U.S. are less than 10 trucks, there could be a gaping hole to fill in the spot market when a freight rebound happens.

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