August 2025 Freight Market Update

Stay up to date on the latest information on conditions impacting the freight market, curated by Trinity Logistics through our Freightwaves Sonar subscription.

From Peak to Plummet

Last month, we talked about the rise in import volumes and speculated on the impact of new tariffs or expiring pauses on current tariffs. Unfortunately, that came true in July, with import volumes dropping sharply as indicated in Figure 1.1. While import volumes have been up year-over-year for the first half of 2025, projections based on tariff impacts forecast a much lower second half.

Overall, the U.S. is forecasting an almost six percent reduction compared to last year. Yes, lower product demand attributed to rising costs is one driver of the YoY decline. But you may remember the tail end of 2024 saw a surge in import volumes due to the lack of certainty around labor issues at the East and Gulf coast ports, making the comps for the latter part of 2025 much more challenging. 

With 136 days until Christmas, and based on anticipated cancelled and blank sailings, it may be wise to bundle your Christmas and Back-to-School shopping all in one.

PLENTY OF DRIVERS, BUT NOt DRIVING UP RATES

Overall carrier capacity continues to be fruitful, with August seeing a spike in net operating authorities as evidenced by Figure 2.1. This has driven down what was an escalating tender rejection rate over the last two months, with carriers saying “yes” to freight tendered their way almost 95 percent of the time.  

With no reason to expect a surge in freight demand over the remainder of the calendar year, rejection rates remaining low will continue to keep carrier rates stagnant. 60 days ago, spot rates for carriers sat at $2.27. Today, that number is $2.28. 

In general, the over-the-road freight market can be described like my golf game, “eehhhh”.

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