What is a freight market update?

A freight market update summarizes current transportation trends—like capacity, tender rejections, and pricing—so shippers and carriers can plan more effectively.

What do tender rejection rates indicate?

Tender rejection rates show how often contracted carriers decline loads. Higher rejection rates typically signal tightening capacity and increased pricing pressure.

Why do spot rates rise when capacity tightens?

When fewer trucks are available, carriers can be more selective. This often pushes more freight to the spot market, increasing competition and driving spot rates higher.

What does it mean when spot and contract rates move closer together?

When the gap narrows, contract pricing offers less savings versus spot. Shippers may have to use more spot coverage or adjust routing guides to maintain service levels.

How can seasonal imports affect domestic freight capacity?

Higher inbound ocean volumes can increase drayage and inland transportation demand, pulling equipment and drivers into port-adjacent lanes and tightening capacity in other areas.

How should shippers prepare when rejection rates and spot rates are rising?

Shippers can reduce disruption by tightening lead times, validating routing guides, building backup capacity options, and communicating early with broker and carrier partners on priority freight.

02/17/2026 by Greg Massey

February 2026 Freight Market Update

Get the latest insights shaping the logistics industry with Trinity’s February 2026 Freight Market Update, powered by our Freightwaves Sonar subscription.

last year’s playbook doesn’t work anymore

What a difference a year makes! This time last year, carriers were saying “yes” on almost every load tender that came their way. Fast forward 12 months, and tender rejection rates are 2-3x what they were at the start of 2025.

Figure 1.1 shows the breakdown by van (yellow), reefer (blue) and flatbed (white).

Graph pulled from Freightwaves showing reefer outbound tender rejection index chart showing rejection rates by van, reefer, and flatbed equipment rising sharply into early 2026, highlighted in the February 2026 freight market update. — *Figure 1.1*

The recent weather certainly has been a secondary catalyst to an already escalating rejection trend seen from carriers towards the end of last year. As a result, it has (Figure 1.2) pushed spot rates 20% higher year-over-year, even as volume has remained stagnant.

Freightwaves SONAR graph - National Truckload Index 7-day average chart illustrating rising spot rate pressure and market tightening from late 2025 into early 2026, featured in the February 2026 freight market update. — *Figure 1.2*

carriers are keeping their options open

With spot rates on the rise, the delta compared to contract rates has become almost nil (Figure 2.1).

Contract carriers may be constrained by lack of capacity versus several months ago in certain areas, however it’s also plausible that carriers (and typically those that don’t have a minimum acceptance threshold on contracted freight) are very capable of providing the needed capacity, but simply hedging their bets on a better paying, similar lane on the spot market.

Shippers are no doubt having to reach further down their list of carriers and even forcing more freight to the spot market.

Freightwaves chart showing the narrowing spread between spot and contract truckload rates, with spot prices increasing toward parity in early 2026, as analyzed in the February 2026 freight market update. — *Figure 2.1*

carriers are keeping their options open

While Figure 3.1 below, which shows the inbound container volume to the U.S., could give reason for optimism when you compare the current year (blue) to past years, it’s a bit of fool’s gold for continuing the ascent.

This year, the Chinese New Year (also known as the Lunar New Year) will occur between February 17^th and March 3^rd. Prior years have seen the New Year begin in late January or early February. U.S. inventories have declined over the past year, and tariff or no tariff, shippers will have no choice to restock in the face of consumer demand.

It’s anticipated that imports will follow a traditional seasonal pattern sans the later than normal decline that always happens around the Chinese New Year.

Freightwaves graphic showing inbound ocean container volume index comparing current year TEU volumes to prior years, showing seasonal import patterns ahead of Lunar New Year, included in the February 2026 freight market update. — *Figure 3.1*

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